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|Aug 7th: TrendLines Research provides exclusive Marsh Lake freshet charts, analysis of YTG myriad of miscalls of 2007 Peak & historic charts of 2004 & 1981 Flood Crests at theYukonTV's homepage.|
Oct 10th: The polling stations are open. The turnout is good. And the weather is awesome for voting day. See the comparisons between today's results and the TrendLines projections at the FreeVenue ... later tonite.
Oct 4th: TrendLines is projecting a Yukon Party Minority at this time.
We are tabulating the 9th & 10th Ridings. Time is short and juggling polling and canvassing ain't easy. W~h Center will be posted around 10pm Wedneday; P/C South at 11pm; followed by the new Riding Projection & yukon-wide popular opinion by midnite ... all at the FreeVenue. All new Ridings will be posted at the FreeVenue.
Sept 26: We're on the campaign trail. Sorry. No new numbers. "stay tuned" ... we may back! Mak-Tak would be next. At this time, TrendLines is projecting a Minority YP Gov't as the Indie in the Riding projection of late July for Mak-Tak is academic with the failure of a phantom to come forward. Ed Schultz remains the favoured winner 'til subsequent calls reveal otherwise. Similarly, new candidates that came forward (or withdrew) since July 31 contaminate much of that polling and the associated projections.
Sept 23: Just wrapping up final polling calls and tabulation on Riverdale North. The Update commenced Sept 5th assumed a November Election. With my Candidacy Declaration last week, it is extremely difficult to continue the polling after tonite w/o affecting the integrity of the data and sampling standards to which we aspire. Well, not really standards, our Riding level sampling is avant garde and proprietary. After almost five Ridings, all we are certain of is that Minority Gov't looks inevitable...
Sept 22: September polling is being done in the order of those which had full slates first. We want to call Respondents that have known and digested (all) their candidates the longest. Hence, the order is: Southern Lakes, Riverdale South, Lake Laberge, P/C North, Riverdale North (polling complete in these 5 Ridings), Mac-Tak (slate firmed Aug31), W~h West (Sep8), Vuntut Gwitchin (Sep11), W~h Center (Sep11), P/C South (Sep12), Mayo-Tatchun (Sep13), Mt Lorne (Sep14), Copperbelt (Sep17), P/C Center (Sep17), Klondike (Sep17), Kluane (Sep18), Pelly-Nisutlin (Sep18) & Watson Lake (final slate firmed Sep19).
Sept 20th 2006 Announcement: I started the TrendLines Blog on "Sept 27th 2005." Since then my life has been pretty well an open book. While it started as a bunch of us idealists on a quest to purge our Yukon Party of its Leadership, i've since been able to share my interests in climate change, energy resources, economics and politics. I've had hundreds of emails, phone calls and taps on the shoulder thanking me for my studies and comments and frankly this encourages me to continue this hobby out-of-control. So popular, that we had to split the venue ... and initiate theYUKON.tv portal to service the awesome regional interest in my adopted home North of 60. To celebrate this milestone, we have another. Today Evalina and i celebrate that some viewer from the 90 Nations that frequent our realm will give the TrendLines/theYUKON.tv server its 100,000th HIT. Yup. Neat, eh!! And we've attained that threshold with 32,777 new visitors. This includes theYukon.tv spinoff site which commenced in May & its 3,000th new visitor will pass at about 10am today! Again, i'm humbled. Thanx muchly!!
Sept 9: Frankly, the Election call at this particular time stuns us. With my Declaration as an Indep't in Kluane yesterday, it will be difficult to finish the Sept Update ... but we will try to squeeze it in. As always, watch the yellow highlight band above for our intentions and scheduling.
Sept 5-8: Polling for our September Yukon Political Update is under way. There was no August Update due to our relocation. As we tabulate the results of the September Update, u can see the results above, again in reverse alphabetical. When there is significant change, we will amend the Leg' MLA Riding Projection as well from the 7-5-5-1 July result.
Aug 17th: New stat - When we purge the April-June data and view only the sampling data from late July, the Results are: Yukon Party 35%, Liberals 33%, NDP 23% & Independents 9% with a 9% Margin of Error and 13% Undecided factor. This compares to 40/29/27/4 respectively in the 2002 Election. The eventual destination of remaining Independent sentiment will determine the outcome of this Election.
Aug 13th: As y'all know i am discussions with TrendLiners wrt my becoming a participant in Territorial politics rather than just throwing grenades from the cheap seats. A dilemma that presents itself is the dedication of time such a decision will require and the ramifications on our Summer/Autumn polling schedule. We will be releasing the July Update next week and as shown in the TimeLine above, we had intended to start our August Update later this month. Another survey was contemplated in the days just prior to Election Day. While we treasure our subscribers and other loyal TrendLiners, it is becoming apparent that more and more hits are coming from the Caucus offices of the Yukon Party, the Liberal Party & the NDP; yet they carry little of the financial load.
Methinx we will pause and reflect before making final decisions, but consider this blog item as an open invitation to the Caucus reps of the three Parties and/or their Territorial Associations to propose some contribution towards the next couple of Updates. Time will be precious to Evalina and i over these next few months if i jump into the fray. While it is unlikely that all three Parties actually want their fates revealed in this open forum, it is felt that this opportunity should be offered to concerned Party faithful and insiders before we pull the plug.
If there is no consensus between the stakeholders, we will be back eventually and resume with Updates of the Federal & Secession polling this Winter. Again, if u can speak to some degree for your Party, give us a call or an email. BTW, we will be fair to our long term subscribers.
Aug 5th: The results below will be publicly released via the FreeVenue on Aug21st. Until another poll is under way, most comments will be made at the FreeVenue. There may be some confusion 'cuz the readers there for the most part won't know what y'all know about below!
Things are happening at a faster pace on the Nomination front and we are updating the Election Central page daily to reflect new names. Also, we will be using the time between now and the August Update to relocate our offices to Haines Junction.
With respect to the me and political aspirations, i have never run for office myself but there is pressure on for me to join in as a participant rather than affect change from my common perch in an advisory Board role or from my soapbox here at TrendLines as a commentator. I had thought that my relatively short time in the Territory would discount that option but i am certainly being encouraged to do so. I treasure the many comments we receive from TrendLiners during the year. If anyone wishes to chat about the pro's & con's of this prospect, please feel free to contact me at 660.5566 or by email. And much thanx to those that have already voiced their many opinions and strategies. It is apparent Yukoners want change ... and i would be honoured to assist in shaping its implementation.
Aug 2nd: As i review the Update results with some pragmatism, it is likely that Ed Schultz will topple the phantom Indep't and defeat either Edzerza or Rachael Lewis (if we can collectively convince him to stay in the race). I hear countless times how much he is missed as Grand Chief and he will be an asset to Yukon serving in the Leg'. Subject to any other all-stars surfacing to change the complexion of Riding races, this would present us with an 8-Liberal Leg' Minority with the YP & NDP holding 5 MLA's each. All price subj to change w/o notice.
July 28th: Added to "the question" in July's Update are Liberal Nominee Ethel Tizya in Southern Lakes; Jim Bowers as YP Nominee in Kluane; Alexia McKinnon testing waters for the YP and Vicki Durrant as an Indep't in W~h Centre; and Mike Walton as a Liberal hopeful in W~h West. We are going into August with only 5 of 18 Incumbents undeclared: Kenyon, Hassard & Edzerza still undeclared for the YP; Duncan undeclared for the Liberals; and Jenkins undeclared as an Indep't. All the Dippers are assumed declared. We presently stand with 28 of the full slate of 59.
July 21st: The May/June Update that we previewed here for the last three weeks has just been Released at the FreeVenue as scheduled. The calls for the July Yukon Political Update will commence shortly. There will be a real time preview release here over the next ten days of those stats as they are tabulated. Those results will be released to the FreeVenue on August 21st.
June 30th: I'm speechless. For the first time in our year of polling Yukoners, the TrendLines Update includes Ridings with "Indept's" leading. 2 of 'em and they're both phantoms. And u won't believe who one of the Incumbents is that is poised for defeat! Scroll down to Copperbelt. And we have another first. Dennis Fentie and the Yukon Party are poised for a second mandate after trailing either the NDP or Liberals in our Leg' MLA Projection since its initiation last Summer: 6-6-4-2 (and conventions says tie goes to the governing Party). All that talk about imminent Regime Change? Well, take out the "imminent"! Drilling down, the rise of an Independent faction has hurt the Liberals and especially the NDP.
22 of the 59 General Election candidates are Assumed Declared or testing the waters. This growing slate has had a dramatic effect on our 18 Riding Projections and the Leg' Seat Projection: 8 Lead Changes and the Yukon Party tied for the overall lead. Scrolling below, we see among other revelations, that a phantom Yukon Party candidate is poised to win Kluane. A phantom Indep't is poised to defeat Liberal Leader Art Mitchell; Another is leading in Mac-Tak. Jon Breen has the slightest of leads over Brad Cathers and phantom Liberals are poised to snatch W~h West from Cabinet Minister Elaine Taylor and Riverdale North from Speaker Ted Staffen. Note that Cabinet Minister Glenn Hart has taken on phoenix qualities, and Archie too. May also reflects the Liberal recruitment of Eric Fairclough in Mayo-Tatchun.
At left is a representation of present Party Popular Opinion status. The present spread between the traditional three Parties is 0.4%.
It is noteworthy that thru our year of polling, except for Peter Jenkins, no Opposition Incumbent had ever not been leading. June calls reveal that the string has been broken: Arthur Mitchell has lost the Lead in Copperbelt and Gary McRobb in Kluane. It is evident that Yukoners are engaged in a "pause and reflect" moment.
Scroll down for our 18 Riding graphs:
This May/June Update of our rolling poll survey is based on responses from 319 Decided voters from March20-June29. The survey has about a 13% Undecided factor with a Margin of Error of 5% for the Yukon-wide Party Popular Opinion and an avg 25% for the individual Ridings. March calls have been purged from Copperbelt. Mayo-Tatchun includes June calls only.
June 26th: One Riding complete tonite. Being Mayo-Tatchun, it had to be a full survey because averaging the rolling poll does not compute with a change in Parties. With Eric Fairclough's move to the Liberal caucus from Indep't, we had to toss the March and April calls. And he did well. His new popular opinion graph is above.
June 23rd: This Update's 3rd & 4th Riding Lead Changes become apparent with tonite's results of Riverdale North & Porter Creek Centre below. A phantom Liberal has overtaken Ted Staffen and what's this? Yup, Archie Lang is back to fight another day!
June 17th: As u may be aware by now, the Yukon Independents Party is being launched next week. This could be an important juncture for politics in the Yukon. It is clear from our April Update that Yukoners have an appetite for change. 53% of those called in April wanted to vote for an Independent Candidate. It was running 36% in May before we suspended the survey. We are unsure how many citizens will put their name forward on Monday. And how many will come out of the woodwork in the following days. We have decided that we want any Indept's that arise in our remaining Ridings (10) for we consider that poll results w/o those names will be quickly dismissed. There is no question that results illustrating momentum in the Independent thrust will assist that cause. Nobody here will be surprised at my support and indeed promotion of that eventuality unfolding. In any event, our May/June Update including all 18 electoral districts will be completed by month end; followed quickly by a July Update to catch candidate announcements missed in the 8 May polls (e.g. Ethel Tizya for Liberals in Southern Lakes & Vicki Durrant, an Indep't in W~h Centre).
June 3rd: Again our sincere thanx to Matt from Minto (Palmerston) Ontario for his map graphic of our April Political Update. Mayo-Tatchun has since turned Liberal Red (from Indep't) and W~h West should by YP blue:
May 13th: If u scroll down to May6th, we have added a graph illustrating the breakdown of the "No" vote for those not preferring an Indep't candidate at this time.
May 12th: Donna Larsen of DataPath released a political poll today that is almost identical to our "standard" version w/o the Indep't prompt. It was conducted Apr15-May2 and carries a 30% Undecided factor and MoE of 5.5%. In this comparison, TrendLines has the YP 2% higher & the Indept's 2% lower. Donna really dislikes it when i graph her results, but as they say, it's always easier to ask forgiveness than permission, eh.
May 11th: Yesterday's Opinion graph assumed that a strong Independent candidate runs in most Ridings. Drilling down, here is the alternative representation should that scenario fail to occur. Adjusting for the May 1st Fairclough move, the Riding Projection would have the NDP & Liberals tied at 7 MLA's with the YP static at 4 seats. Lake Laberge & Southern Lakes are the pivot Ridings. The NDP gain two while the YP lose them. For clarity, the NDP would lead with 33% and the Liberals & YP would be tied at 31.2% ... a difference of 1.8%. At this juncture it is the NDP that are the most vulnerable should there be a slate of Independents running. Our latest rolling poll survey is based on responses from 323 Decided voters including calls from Jan14-April30. The survey had 11% Undecided with a Margin of Error of 5%.
May 10th: Final tabulations continue. And a very tight race in Southern Lakes has put Patrick Rouble back in the lead (see corrected graph for that Riding). And with all 18 Electoral Districts now completed, we had a YP/Lib tie that has been broken with the recent development of Eric Fairclough joining the Liberals. The Liberals have the overall lead and yes, holy sh*t, that means Art Mitchell is TrendLines new "Premier-in-Waiting"! Mea culpa.
Below is our latest graph of Popular Opinion of the Parties Yukon wide. It reflects the latest poll question revelation that 53% of Yukoners would prefer to vote Independent this Autumn. If u want to run as an Independent this year, contact us at TrendLines. It's time to get this sentiment formalized to assist that fledgling group. The corrected March figures are YP 31.3%, NDP 32.5, Liberals 32.1 ... only a 1.2% difference. That has widened slightly to 2.3% in April: YP 26.5%, NDP 28.8% & Liberals with 27.2%. It seems the relationship between winnable ridings and popular support figures seen in 2002 are invalidated. Concentrations of support have changed substantially and continuing former extrapolations is folly.
May 7/8/9/10th: Ok, we continue to add the 18 Riding Polls (reverse alphabetical)...
May 6th: Ready for a Blockbuster? We wanted to gauge support for a growing sentiment to vote "Independent" this time around. I've always discounted and even discouraged "other" responses in our polling 'cuz i felt that these were mainly "protest votes". But at TrendLines we have been wide-eyed recently at the comments we've been getting to the "which Party would u vote for" question. "i wish there was a good Indep't Candidate" is a phrase we get quite often. Folks seem to sense a disconnect from the Party electoral system ... that it is not responsive to their needs, at this time. So we asked 109 Yukoners whether they would prefer to vote for an Indie or someone from the Traditional Parties. All we can say is "wow"!!
The implications of this are immense. It is clear that voters are ticked off with the avoidance techniques employed by some of our MLA's. But having had a crack (no pun intended on the YP) at each Party over the last few years, Yukoners don't seem to see "Changing Parties" as a means to attain better gov't. Nobody seems to be demanding electoral reform, say to the proportional representation. No, instead they seem to desire "better" MLA's. As i have stated here before, i don't believe we have the critical mass for enuf good MLA's under the Party system. A partial cure to that would be to raise salaries to entice strong candidates from the civil service and the private sector. But at 5% Unemployment Rate, that is not completely practical. We have good people, they are just spread too thin between three Parties. We need the pooling of good human resources that works well in the Municipal & Regional jurisdictions where all work together for the common good instead of striving to embarrass each other in the media. Consider the prospects of presenting a slate of a dozen strong men and women running under an Independent banner this Autumn. The results could be overwhelming and this poll says the time is right. Contact us if u are of like mind and wish to be included in future discussions.
And here is the Party breakdown of the "No" votes.
This Poll Question was based on responses from 109 Decided voters called April29-30. The survey has 0% Undecided (another wow!) with a Margin of Error of 9%.
May 5th: I'm bach'ing it for three days while Evalina is over at the Lions Trade Show at the Heritage-RESP & Mary Kay Cosmetics kiosks. Please zip over and order some cosmetics 'cuz she will never get rich with those $1 subscriptions here. For men, she has nice stuff or gift certificates for your wife and girlfriend (but get separate receipts!). If u'r broke, that's ok, she luvs to chat about the WWWeb and politics too. If u have a small business, she'll do barter to help u with a website design and/or hosting. My "getting a round tuit" list has become quite long, but i'll have the new servers fine tuned by Monday...
May 1st - Welcome to our new venue. Evalina and i are flattered by Yukoners response to our studies and sincerely appreciate the genuine and from-the-heart comments that y'all share with us by email, calls and upon meeting political junkies in our travels around the Yukon Region.
Blog & graph archive at TrendLines website (Sept/2005 to April/2006)
Copyright 1989-2006 - All rights reserved. The contents of this site are protected by copyright and reproduction of the graphs or content is prohibited w/o the express consent of TrendLines or theYUKONtv. We ask that other Yukon media outlets please respect this and feel free to contact us via 634.2266 or graphs@TrendLines.ca