Launch of The Yukon's newest media outlet is sponsored by...
 

 welcome to theYUKON.tv's

 TrendLines Graphs & a Politically Incorrect Blog of Affairs in Canada & The Yukon (by Freddy Hutter)

 Copyright Notice

theYUKON.tv Home   TrendLines SubscriberVenue Graphs   TrendLines "Election Central TrendLines Blog Archive (Sept2005-April2006)  TrendLines old Surveys

TimeLine:    * - denotes our probable date; New stuff in Yellow

Announcements & Sales Pitch

Oct 17 2011 Latest date to drop writ for next Territorial Election

Programming Note:  Compare our "Sept/Oct Yukon Politics Update" to the final results from ElectionsYukon.  Features our Graphs for each of the 18 Ridings, our Leg' Profile Riding Projection & Yukon-wide Popular Opinion.  And a comparison of our projection to that of DataPath.  See Oct 11th Blog.

Desire a private survey??

For a private poll in your Riding of Party Popularity or a specific question, please give us a call (634.2266)  or drop us a line (graphs@trendlines.ca)

  • In Oct 2006, we predicted the successful winning Party, the (popular opinion) correct order of finish of the Territorial Election & 12 of 18 Riding winners. Our popular opinion rate was within 6% (with survey cost of $3255 & normal Margin of Error <MoE> of 8%).

  • In January 2006, we predicted Larry Bagnell would be elected with 48.5% of the vote ... ElectionsCanada reported five days later that he got ... 48.5% (with survey cost of $1785 & normal MoE of 9%).

  • In November 2005, i predicted Art Mitchell would win the Copperbelt By-Election with 58.3% of the vote... ElectionsYukon reported...49.6% and that my advance poll date was within 5% (both surveys cost $270 & normal MoE of 22%

  • In a tad larger survey, Evalina predicted Mitchell would get 48.6% (survey cost of $540 & normal MoE of 16%)

  • Our evening polls as in our Sept/Oct "Yukon Political Update" below (blog date Oct 8) are available for $195-$360 (with normal MoE of 27%-19%)

Contact us today:  634.2266 or graphs@TrendLines.ca

Oct 19 2009 Federal Election
Mar 28, 2007* TrendLines target for Yukon Spring Sitting & Budget
Jan 29 House of Commons Session reconvenes
Jan 19 Nine-month anniversary of the joint position of CBC's Trisha Estabrooks & The Yukon News' Graeme McElheran to bar TrendLines from the Leg' Press Gallery.  Is it time to switch to CHON-FM & the W~h Star?
Jan 14 Four-month anniversary of Deputy Education Minister Gordon McDevitt & Denis Gauthier, Director of Education joining the Fentie vs TrendLines vendetta.  The Yukon ex-con is growing his posse, eh.
Jan 5 Nine-month anniversary of the Cabinet Communications Director Peter Carr's barring of TrendLines from YTG Press Conferences
   
   

     The Blog:

Aug 7th:  TrendLines Research provides exclusive Marsh Lake freshet charts, analysis of YTG myriad of miscalls of 2007 Peak & historic charts of 2004 & 1981 Flood Crests at theYukonTV's homepage.

Dec 30th:  Saddam farewell at our homepage.



Dec 21st:  As the holidays approach i've still got lotsa boxes from West Vancouver to unpack and sort and file.  Since the Election almost every day has been like Christmas as gradually i see all my old stuff again.  And i've taken much time to catch up on updating many graphics at my Climate and Energy venues at the TrendLines website.  Some of our international TrendLiners (88 nations currently) have waited patiently for 24 months for a few of their favourite graphs.  I gotta make peace over there and spruce the place up before the rumours of a Spring Federal Election come to fruition and TrendLines Federal Ridings Projections become the center of attention again.  Lots to do.

Deputy Minister Gordon McDevitt and Denis Gauthier, Director of Education have joined Dennis Fentie and Peter Carr in their quest to quiet the TrendLines Blog.  They are worth adversaries and with renewed vigour after some holidays, i'll enjoy entrusting to TrendLiners the scrutiny and some enlightenment of these new disciples to the Premier in the coming mandate.

Alas we must start Winter today with a smile.  As Topaz and i head into the Yukon bush with my swede saw, this gem come to mind...

the Christmas Tree Angel Tradition...

When four of Santa's elves got sick, and the trainee elves did not produce the toys as fast as the regular ones, Santa was beginning to feel the pressure of being behind schedule.

Then Mrs. Claus told Santa that her Mom was coming to visit.  This stressed Santa even more.

When he went to harness the reindeer, he found that three of them were about to give birth and two had jumped the fence and were out, heaven knows where. More stress.

Then when he began to load the sleigh one of the boards cracked, and the toy bag fell to the ground and scattered the toys.

So, frustrated, Santa went into the house for a cup of apple cider and a shot of rum. When he went to the cupboard, he discovered that the elves had hidden the liquor, and there was nothing to drink. In his frustration, he accidentally dropped the cider pot, and it broke into hundreds of little pieces all over the kitchen floor.

He went to get the broom and found that mice had eaten the
straw end of the broom.

Just then the doorbell rang, and irritable Santa trudged to the door. He opened the door, and there was a little angel with a great big Christmas tree. The angel said, very cheerfully, "Merry Christmas, Santa. Isn't it a lovely day? I have a beautiful tree for you. Where would you like me to stick it?"

And so began the tradition of the little angel on top of
the Christmas tree.


MERRY CHRISTMAS AND BEST WISHES FOR THE NEW YEAR


Dec 20th:  In a pre-Christmas bombshell, everyone in W~h and across the Yukon is asking "Who is Sheila Clark?"

And when does inappropriate sexual misconduct by a person in authority cross the line to becoming a legitimate love affair?  That query may be the subject of a Grievance Hearing between concerned Cabinet Office co-workers, the Premier and the YTG Union.  Sheila Clark is the infamous female worker in the Cabinet Office that has been at the center of gossip and rumour for many months.  First brought to TrendLines attention by Liberal MLA Gary McRobb, whispers about Sheila Clark's alleged affair with Premier Dennis Fentie unquietly grew in tandem with Fentie's misfortunes and plummeting popularity in the Yukon.

Sheila Clark's mark and influence on Yukon politics is said to go back as far as the outrageous "i'm oudda here" CBC interview involving Premier Dennis Fentie.  Several female Cabinet Office staff have made an exit from the disturbing environment.

It raises another moral question or two.  When do advances by a supervisor become "ok".  And when does the private life a Premier become unprivate?  Most pundits would agree that the day that such conduct unbecoming affects the routine of running the Territory would be a factor.  Another consideration would be the realization that a Premier involved in infidelity on top of other past indiscretions is no longer of the good and moral character that warrants role modeling for Yukon youth.

Other questions are bound to surface in the course and duration of the second mandate.  Were advancements based on merit or ... ?  And what of his scorned "tulip"?

TrendLines 2007.  Stay tuned, eh ...


Dec 6th:  A note wrt the disappointment by some in my lack of "attack mode" postings these past weeks.   During the Election, we saw a genuine outreach from present and prospective MLA's that expressed a desire to raise the decorum and spirit of co-operation at the Leg'.  Some were elected.  Some were re-elected.  I want to give this process a chance to develop and while the first few Sitting days have not gone well, patience is bountiful.  But it is quite hard.  We are sitting on stories of despicable Election irregularities by the Liberals (Arthur, u should give me a call, eh);  juicy YP gossip with names and pic's;  and Peter Carr's aspirations in Houston.

Our Blogster network and its Media following also awaits the disposition of Evalina's politically motivated firing by Yukon Education and its Deputy Minister Gordon McDevitt and Denis Gauthier, Director of EducationShe was fired the day after she announced her intent to act as Campaign Mgr & Official Agent in the recent Election, dashing any chance of Yukon Party Kluane hopeful Jim Bowers joining Caucus.  Sept 14th.  It was intimidation and financial vigilantism of the highest order.  Despite a Union Grievance process that allows reinstatement or settlement via a Hearing and Decision within 21 days, she is approaching the 90 day threshold.  It is up to Dennis Fentie whether this site and the Leg' continue as vehicles of vengeful retaliations or partners in moving the Territory forward.  Does Premier Dennis Fentie want to see blogs with constructive criticism and sharing of information ... or pictures of his recent office love interest.

Coming from Poland, Evalina hasn't learned about kangaroo courts.  She was naive to the fact that her Department Hearing was presided over by the Richard Godson, President of the NDP Riding Association and she was represented at the Union Hearing by Candidate Jim Bowers' nephew, Mark Bowers ... delegated to this highly sensitive incident with only three weeks on the job (and a past political candidate himself).  This was guilt-by-association and everyone in the Territory knows it.

It is no secret that the TrendLines server hits go wild when the dirt flies.  But as a stat and graph guy, it is not my preferred 2007 theme.  It is time for Dennis Fentie, Gord McDevitt & Denis Gauthier to do the right thing ... or face the wrath before and during the wrongful dismissal action.  It will not be pretty.  The environment that these three gentlemen work in for the next five year mandate is in their own hands.  This is not a threat.  It is a "pledge" that will be applied with unrelenting and extreme vigour!!

We will know shortly if the Premier and his YP was humbled in the Election by what they heard and saw in the trenches and Media ... or whether Dennis Fentie remains just a street kid in a suit...


Dec 5th:  Prior to commencing Question Period, MLA's often voice support for National or International Days of Recognition.  Today was Int'l Volunteerism Day and several MLA's gave Tributes.  IMHO, the Yukon is the poster child for "I'm too  fricken lazy to be a fricken Volunteer Day".  In most jurisdictions, we see folks rally to serve as committee members and officers of clubs, associations, non-profits & NGO's.  Here in the Yukon however, we spend donation monies and what should be program spending monies on paid secretaries, paid treasurers, paid executive directors, paid travel, meals for Directors, unproductive office space, seldom used equipment and furnishings, etc etc.  Wording for a club, association, non-profit or NGO in the Yukon has become white welfare.  Fluff jobs.  Often it is not transparent and it is not accountable and stories abound of the funds rip-offs/misappropriations and recourse legal suits.  For the most part, volunteerism is dead in our Territory.  SHAME on many Yukoners.  Volunteerism is life blood of many communities on the Outside.  Not here.  And Yukon kids and young adults see what is going on...

I am finding that many Yukoners are not well travelled;  especially First Nations.  Living exclusively in a grant driven environment, the easy money, has much to do with Yukoners lack of work ethic, lack of cognizance of tourists expectations for level of service and lack of exposure to true volunteerism.  There is a reason tourists race thru the Territory as fast as they can.  The W~h Chamber of Commerce is making an effort to get instil awareness of the problem here.  Admitting the prob is step one folks.


Dec 2nd:  An exciting weekend for the Federal Liberals.  The first ballot saw Ignatieff leading followed by Rae, Dion, Kennedy, Dryden, Brison, Volpe & Findlay.  Findlay joined Dion's camp while Brison & Volpe crossed to Rae.  The second ballot had Ignatieff still leading followed by Rae, Dion, Kennedy & Dryden.  Dryden joined Rae's camp and in an expected move, Kennedy brought his massive support to Dion.  Technically, Dion & Kennedy would have more delegates than the two leading candidates.  And that's what the third ballot revealed:  Dion in the lead followed by Ignatieff and Rae.  Rae was dropped from the ballot but he didn't throw his support to either of the two in the run-off.  Dion won with a 55-45 margin.  All five continuing candidates gained votes in successive ballots.  The closing of the convention was marked by a making of peace of sorts via emotional tributes by ex-PM's John Turner, Jean Chrétien & Paul Martin.

Stéphane Dion is not popular in Quebec and is not a favourite son of Liberal organizers there.  He is not well known in the West.  Ontario knows him as the Environment Minister that held the tiller while Canada's greenhouse gas emissions rose 24% while defending the Kyoto Protocol.  He inherited a failed Liberal voluntary guidelines program that made Canada liable for $7-Billion in carbon credits payable to Russia.  This is the Stéphane Dion with whom PM Stephen Harper consulted last month to design the infamous "Quebecois are a Nation" resolution.  Both men were authors of the Quebec-inspired "Clarity Act".

It would be easy for either Party to trigger a Federal Election around the Spring Budget.  With the Conservatives and Liberals presently low in the polls, don't plan your holidays around it just yet !!


Nov 30th:  Question Period has reverted to status quo.  Eric Fairclough catches Fentie in a lie about the guerrilla outfitters.  Yesterday the Premier said he couldn't comment due to a YTG legal action and due process.  Fairclough found this morn that no such action has been registered at the courthouse!  Oops.

Fentie says most of the questions this session are "meaningless" ... and i tend to agree.  Boring.  And the attempt at renewed decorum has quickly failed and reverted to the circus.

Gallery trips are futile and i'm filling in the gaps and coping with -44 temp's in the Junction with a 50-yr family tradition - but mine has lotsa moose meat mixed in!!

 

 


Nov 24th:  The Federal Gov't has presented an Economic and Fiscal Update called "Advantage Canada".  The thrust of the Statement is to pay down Canada's Federal Debt to the extent that the National & Provincial Debt will equal the trust fund covering the Canada/Quebec Pension Funds in 2021.  This is an IMF/OECD measure called Net Debt.  In 2021, the trust fund will equal the Fed/Prov Debt if we have $57-Billion in accumulated Surplus Budgets by that time.  The framework highlights incl:

- Targeted Federal tax cuts of $22-Bil over next 6 years (incl reduction of GST to 5% by 2011) not incl previously announced Seniors tax splitting.

- 2006/2007 Surplus estimated at $4.2-Bil & Accumulated Surplus of $19-Bil over next 6 years

- Min of $3-Bil reduction of Nat'l Debt targeted annually ($13.2-Bil was paid off in 2006 due to unexpected third largest Surplus in Cndn history.  The present balance of $481-Bil is $81-Bil less than the peak in 1997)

- Expected Real GDP growth of 2.75% for next two years

- The Federal Gov't & the Bank of Canada are renewing Canada's Inflation target of 2% for a further five years within a cushion range of 1-3%.

- Corp tax rate may be lowest in G7 by 2011 at 18.5%


Also yesterday, the Federal Gov't announced proposed legislation that endeavours to prohibit bail to anyone committing a crime whilst possessing a firearm.


The Bloc Quebecois (taking their lead from the Quebec Liberal Party Convention and Liberal leadership hopeful, Michael Ignatief) have introduced a private member's bill which seeks the Federal Govt's "recognition of Quebec as a Nation, currently within Canada."  Stephen Harper has proposed his own recognition proclamation and has issued the following Statement:

STATEMENT BY THE PRIME MINISTER TO THE HOUSE OF COMMONS

November 23, 2006
Ottawa, Ontario

Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement to the House of Commons concerning the motion tabled in respect of Quebec as a nation:

"That this House recognize that the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada."

Mr. Speaker,

The true intention of the Bloc leader and the sovereignist camp is perfectly clear.

It is not to recognize what the Québécois are, but what the sovereignists would like them to be.

For the Bloc, this is not about Quebec as a nation; the National Assembly has already pronounced on that. This is about separation.

To them, nation means separation.

We saw his true intentions on October 27, when he said: “…the NDP has recognized for decades that Quebec forms a nation, yet every time there is a referendum, they act contrary to the positions they’ve taken.”

In other words, if we recognize the Québécois as a nation, we must vote “yes” in a referendum on separation.

And the Bloc leader’s attempt to lead the Québécois, in good faith, to support separation in spite of themselves reminds us of his mentor Jacques Parizeau and the “lobster traps”.

But the Québécois are not fooled by these clumsy tactics.

The former PQ Premier, Bernard Landry, posed the following question: “once that recognition is achieved, you have to know that you will then be faced with the following question: Why should the Quebec nation be content with being the province of another nation and forgo equality with your nation and all other nations?”

The answer is clear, because the Québécois have always played an historic role in advancing Canada with solidarity, courage and vision, and building a Quebec that is confident, self-reliant, united and proud within a Canada that is strong and united, independent and free.

When he landed in Québec City, Champlain did not say, “This isn’t going to work: it’s too far, it’s too cold, it’s too difficult.” No. Champlain and his companions worked hard because they believed in what they were doing, because they wanted to preserve their values, because they wanted to build a long-lasting, secure country.

And that is exactly what happened almost 400 years ago: the founding of the Canadian state.

Mr. Speaker, the Québécois know who they are.

They know they have contributed to Canada’s founding, development and greatness.

They know they have preserved their unique language and culture and promoted their values and interests within Canada.

The question is a straightforward one: do the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada? The answer is yes.

Do the Québécois form a nation independent from Canada? The answer is no, and it will always be no.

All throughout their history, the Québécois have always recognized the prophets of doom and the true guides of their destiny.

Because the Québécois since Cartier and Laurier to Mulroney and Trudeau have led this country, and millions like them have helped to build it.

And with their English- and French-speaking fellow citizens and people of all nationalities from around the world, they made this country what it is: the greatest country on Earth, a shining example in a dangerous and divided world of the harmony and unity that all peoples have the capacity to achieve.

And we will do what we must, what our forefathers and foremothers have always done, and that is to preserve this country—a strong, united, independent and free Canada.


Nov 23rd:  In this afternoon's Throne Speech, the Fentie Gov't pats itself on the back for the growing graduation rate for Yukoners.  Dennis and the boys haven't got a clue.  Now remember, this is The Yukon.  Here, "Graduation" refers to Grade 12 ... not College or University.  The rest of Canada has not applauded its high school grads for five decades, but the practice is widespread in Yukon communities, being at the bottom of the national food chain.

It is timely and incredible for Fentie to highlight this tragedy.  Just yesterday, CBC's Nancy Thomson had guest Melanie Barrett reveal to us that of the Yukon's 99 First Nations "graduates", only 19 of 'em passed the College/University entrance exams.  What does that tell ya?  A tragedy.  A tragedy that underscores the Fraser Institute's report that Yukon high school students have among the lowest scores in the country.  And yet Yukon Education allows our kids to have the shortest number of attendance days in Canada.  And its teachers have only three Professional Days whilst the norm is ten.  The Yukon Party has been in office for four years.  There is no one else to blame for this travesty.

Also on CBC, Phil Fontaine took glee in assessing an "F" grade on the Conservative Govt's programs in 2006.  As Assembly of FN chief, he should take a long hard look at his own people before embarrassing himself.  Many FN (incl Yukon) wish to setup their own schools.  On CHON-FM last year, we heard Yukon Education's Asst Director of Education admit to Chuck Hendrie that in reality we have two streams in the Yukon and it is the averaging of both of these that gave us the low scores.  He implied that if FN's were not included, all would seem well.  Ok, that may be true in W~h, but most of the schools in the communities could not afford two independent systems (FN & "the others").  Altho, anecdotally, many parents have placed their kids in French immersion classes to avoid the mix.  And many other parents express openly that they would be elated to see these two streams formally separated.  Can u Imagine Tomorrow?!!

As background, here is an excerpt from my infamous June 19th Carcross Murder Trial blog:

Personally i believe this is partially related to low literacy among FN and hence my recent criticism of those pushing FN students thru high school with a blind eye to measurement norms.  To that end, we have secured the OECD's Int'l Literacy and Skills Survey which is oft quoted by Education Minister John Edzerza.  While he likes to claim that Yukon is highest of all Canada's jurisdictions in that massive study, again we see evidence of the recent Yukon Education Dept acknowledgement that we have "two streams" in Territory schools.  Officials were at the time explaining the second Fraser Institute High School Standings Report that showed the Yukon's abysmal results.  Drilling down and adjusting for population, it is revealed that while 71% of non-FN Yukoners (over 16 yrs old) had a passing grade (of Level 3-5), only 49% of Yukon FN passed the same prose literacy test.

Dennis Fentie asks us to Imagine Tomorrow about 13 times in the Throne Speech.  This calls to mind that he has one or two Grievance Hearing results to announce outcomes on this week.  One for Evalina, fired from the Yukon Education Dept 'cuz this Blog is syndicated to one of her websites, www.theYukon.tv & of course we are all awaiting the disposition of SignGate, the alleged Complaint and Grievance by both co-workers and a Cabinet Office administrator involving alleged inappropriate sexual activity by the Premier.  It further addresses alleged subsequent special treatment and advancement of Dennis Fentie's recent love interest and caused a furore within the Cabinet Offices.  That situation is also said to have precipitated Dennis Fentie's early Election call in September after indicating to Todd Hardy that the Election call would accommodate his emergency medivac and cancer treatment in Vancouver.  Oops.   Blogsters across Canada and their media followings are awaiting the disposition of these two developments:  Will Evalina Zamana be reinstated by the Deputy Minister of Education in what was clearly an unlawful dismissal that was politically motivated?  It is true that Dennis Fentie's love interest has been given another promotion?


Nov 8th Update:  There will be a Federal Economic Statement (mini budget) on Nov 23rd.


Nov 8th:  The Yukon Speech from the Throne will be part of an Autumn Sitting (12-day version) commencing Nov 23rd 'til Dec 13th.


Nov 5th:  Thanx to Elaine Kennedy for this snippet from the anonymous Blog "I'm not Paranoid"...

A Primer and Quiz for Left Wing Nutbars

How does the left-wing mind work? Or, maybe a better question is - Why is it that the left-wing mind doesn’t work?

Some people think that left-wingdom is a pathology; A mental illness that prevents the brain from processing information correctly; A psychological disorder that causes the unfortunate sufferer to have crippling episodes of self loathing, wild attacks of delusional naïveté and an irrepressible need to embrace anything and everything destructive and corrosive to their civilization. Maybe it’s no accident that the poor, unfortunate individuals who exhibit these monstrously disabling symptoms are called leftists. After all, it’s the left hemisphere of the brain that controls our ability to think logically. And, as we all know, left wingers are about as good with logic as Bill Clinton is at being faithful to his wife. That is to say, not very. Maybe that’s why they all love Slick Willie – he reminds them of themselves, nasty stains and all.

To be a left wing-dinger is to have completely and utterly divorced yourself from the real world in which you live – to inhabit some sort of mythical dream world where Iranian society is the moral equivalent to Canadian society and America the very embodiment of Satan.

Cultural relativism and Anti-Americanism, you see, are the main cornerstones of the left-wing psychology (or should I say the left-wing psychosis).

Just test any lefty you know. Say something like – “You know, America has got to be the most culturally influential nation that has ever existed. Its awesome presence is everywhere around the world – books, movies, music, TV, Coca cola….” Then, stand back and watch the lefty’s head explode. Or, maybe mention that we sure are lucky to be living in Canada, a nation founded by Christians, rather than one of those Muslim nations. Then, run away, quickly, before the bulging-eyed lefty throttles you while screaming insanely about the Crusades and pedophile priests.

Maybe you know people like that. Maybe you know people who are teetering on the edge of left wing insanity. If so, toss ‘em this handy-dandy leftwing Primer. It’s all they’ll ever need to know about being a lefty. And then some. Here we go.

Dear lefty person:

(Ah-ha, there’s your first lesson. Notice the salutation isn’t Dear ‘Mr. Something’ or, Dear ‘Ms. Something’? That’s a big no-no in lefty-land. And don’t even think about calling someone ‘Mrs’. That’s grounds for murder in some leftist circles. To be a good lefty, one must never ever differentiate between the sexes. Never say Foreman or Tradesman. It’s ‘Foreperson’ and ‘Tradesperson’. Also, note these helpful terms for future reference: ‘Personhole Cover’, ‘Personager’ (that’s an office boss type person); ‘Personure’ (that’s gender-neutral cow droppings), Huperson (Like in ‘Huperson Beings’ or the ‘Huperson Race’). And so on. Make up your own. Have hours of safe, non-biased gender-neutral family fun. Your kids will love it.)

Anyway, Here’s today’s lesson:

To be out in Left-field, you must never ever criticize any culture or ethnic group except white Christians. And you must loudly and aggressively stand up against anyone who dares suggest that western societies are in any way better than those in Africa or the Middle East. Whenever anyone dares show pride in their White Christian heritage, you must quickly come back with a scathing comment referring to slavery, colonialism or capitalist imperialism (whatever that means). If anyone dares to mention Muslims in the middle east castrating their daughters and decapitating people for converting to Christianity, you must snarl back that American foreign policy is the real cause of everything bad in the Middle east. However, should anyone expresses pride in being something other than white, Christian, Hetero or English, you must smile widely, show your appreciation and support, and never say anything negative in response. After all, hasn't the person been victimized enough by evil White, Hetero, Christian men already, without rubbing salt in the wound?

To be a Left-over, you must have the childlike stupidity (ooops, I mean innocence) to believe that humans have the capacity to live together in harmony and create a world where everyone is treated equally and no one has more than anyone else. To believe this, you must believe that our natural individuality, indomitable spirit and healthy egos can somehow be tamed or enslaved. Or, maybe, you’re not stupid at all. Maybe you are just pretending to be, so people will not suspect the true nature of your shrivelled, vile soul. Maybe you are actually like 99% of all lefties out there who, somewhere deep inside, know the truth – that humans will never be equal and the smart and strong will always want more and get more than the stupid and weak unless they are taken down a peg or two. And, you so want to be part of the group that does the taking down, don’t you? Sure you do. All Left-overs do, deep in their conniving black hearts. It isn’t helping the poor that drives them as much punishing everyone else.

Finally, to be a true left winger you must have this inexplicable subconscious need to tear down all the things that your culture was built on – faith, family, procreation, national defence, individual pride, and freedom from undue state interference. You may not realize it because you are a lefty and your brain is addled by the pathology that grips you, but, the truth is that, you hate yourself, your skin and your culture and what you really want - nay, crave – is the destruction of your society.

Do you see yourself in any of this? Just a little maybe? If you do, you’re in luck. A team of twenty NDP experts have developed a short test that will tell you whether or not you are a left wing nutjob. And the best part is – it’s free. So, as my gift to you, here it is. Get ready to see the true you revealed. Ready set…..go.

1. If you believe that society must provide a permanent free house and lifetime welfare for everyone, even sane, able bodied people, while requiring nothing of them in return, you are a left wing nutjob.
2. If you believe that the proliferation of single mothers and fatherless children in our society is a perfectly natural development in our proudly progressive and enlightened society, you are a left wing nutjob.
3. If you believe that poverty and criminality could be eliminated if only government would spend more money on social programs, you are a left wing nutjob
4. If you constantly worry about poverty even though most welfare recipients are rather plump, have DVD players and send their kids to school in NIKE runners, you are a left wing nutjob
5. If you believe that, for the most part, poor people and criminals are not personally responsible for their situation and society as a whole must take ownership for all social ills, you are a left wing nutjob
6. If you truly believe that radical Islam is a religion of peace and no more dangerous than evangelical Christianity, you are not only a left wing nutjob, you are a dangerous delusional moron and an enemy of freedom and democracy.
7. If you are concerned about gender inequity, but only notice it when men perceivably have the advantage and say nothing when women routinely cripple men in family court, get a slap on the wrist after killing their babies, and serve jail time in country cottages, you are probably a left wing nut job. Or maybe you’re just a run of the mill feminist hypocrite.
8. If you believe that it’s a matter of employment equity for females to join the army to fight big swarthy men hand to hand on foreign battlefields but understand why they cannot compete with men in any Olympic sport requiring strength, agility or stamina, then you are either a left wing nutbar or you’ve been brainwashed to think like a mindless feminist peon.
9. If you believe that Canada would be perfectly alright with no army at all, you are a mega left-wing nutjob and should be forcibly conscripted and sent to Iraq for a year to shovel out latrines. As a lefty, you’d be little suited for any other military role.
10. And finally, if you believe that borders are an impingement on the dignity and basic human rights and freedoms of the citizens of the world, you are most definitely a, first class, primo, left wing nutbar.

So, how’d you do? Are you a left wing nut bar? If so, peace be unto you. And remember, Jesus loves you. (Not sure if I believe in Jesus or not – but boy, does his name ever rile up the left wingdings. Oddly, the name of Allah doesn’t seem to bother them at all.)


Nov 4th:  Along with the Kyoto Protocol and Bilingualism, spending on Aboriginal languages is among the greatest wastes of Federal taxpayer money.  Oh, make that "was".  It seems Ottawa has seen the light.  Locally, we see excellent initiatives in Skagway, Juneau and Haines for language preservation (in alliance with Univ of Alaska) and w/o the major federal funding inputs demand from and agreed to by the former Liberal Gov't.

AFN Chiefs Committee on Languages shocked at funding cuts announced by Minister of Canadian Heritage

     OTTAWA, Nov. 2 /CNW Telbec/ - The Assembly of First Nations' Chiefs Committee on Languages (CCOL), comprised of First Nations leaders from across Canada, learned today that there will be significant changes to Aboriginal Languages funding.

     In today's Conservative government's written response to a Question on the Order Paper by Member of Parliament Charlie Angus, Minister of Heritage and Status of Women Bev Oda states that monies once set aside in 2002 for Aboriginal languages in the amount of $172.5 million will not be disbursed as originally planned and, in fact, is being removed from the fiscal framework.

     While $12.5 million has been disbursed to date, the remaining $160 million remains outstanding. Minister Oda affirms that $5 million of new permanent funding will be allocated to "Aboriginal languages while they are considered in the wider context of the new government's approach to meeting the needs of Aboriginal peoples."

     Minister Oda informed CCOL Chair Chief Bill Cranmer of her unilateral decision that the languages funding is expected to be renewed for the next ten years at $5- million per year for a total of $50 million. This represents a significant reduction from the original $172.5 million originally set aside.

     This unilateral decision flies in the face of Federal Government-First Nations Political Accord. This decision demonstrates the lack of good faith on behalf of Canadian Heritage as the Chiefs Committee has been in negotiations with Canadian Heritage officials on the rollout of the remaining $160 million.

     The Chiefs Committee want guarantees that the $160 M is in fact still on the table and that the Department of Canadian Heritage is willing to work with the Chiefs Committee to ensure that the funds are used to revitalize, preserve and maintain of First Nations Languages.

     Chief Bill Cranmer indicated his grave concern for languages today. "We need to act on this immediately. First Nations languages are dying everyday with the passing of our elders and speakers. For government to delay the funding once again is not only shameful and disrespectful but it also hurts First Nations to the core of our existence."


Nov 3rd:  With failure of Dennis Fentie to call back the Leg' to this point in time, it is unlikely there will be an Autumn Sitting w/o the "20 days" running into Christmas week and ending Dec 21st.


Nov 1st:  Union Grievance Hearing for Evalina with Yukon Education Dept.


Oct 20th:  The Greenies, Liberals & NDP are flapping away again on the Kyoto Protocol today.  That grand plan that helps the treehuggers "feel good" by sending a cheque for $7-Billion to Russia.  Not Gov't money, btw, it's taxpayers' money.  That plan is steeped, eh...


Oct 19th:  Last month TrendLines reported that the radioactivity scare in Champagne was politically motivated.  While i provided all residents with current radon info and remedies, the dark side was up to no good.  The fairy tale of mischievous activity by the US Army in the 40's and Cancer scares were poorly conceived cover-ups to divert attention from Champagne Aishihik First Nation's careless dumping in their own back yard (engine coolant, paint thinner, BHT preservative & prescription drugs).  These revelations are not helpful when one promotes itself as being stewards of the land.

Subsequent new testing reveals that our alert that this was simply natural occurring and easily remedied radon origin has been validated.  Radon is treatable.  The garbage NOT.  Like Carmacks' phoney boil-water advisory in the Spring, this is plainly another deception to get a free water system from INAC & the Federal Gov't.  CAFN's ex-Communications guru Rose Kushniruk was front and centre in the staged urgency at Champagne.  Chief James Allen lost his Chiefhood within days of our disclosure of this misguided plot and public relations blunder.  Perhaps they had help from the infamous Peter Carr?


 

Oct 18th:  Hey Garth, i feel your pain!!  The guy puts truth and honesty ahead of Party.  Stay the course, my friend. (click the Garth Turner video for more)

 

 

 

(Burlington Post graphic)


The image “http://residentialschoolsettlement.ca/Hand-color-web.JPG” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.Oct 17th:  Attending Indian Residential School Class Action Settlement Hearings in W~h.  The Provincial/Territorial ratification of the Federal Conservative Govt's $1.9-Billion Agreement will allow the $8,000 Elder Advance Payment to be supplemented with a $10,000 Common Experience Package plus $3,000/yr of attendance at a Residential School.  78,994 survivors and the Estates of the 16,000 deceased (death after May 30 2005) are eligible.  The 12,000-15,000 individual physical/sexual abuse cases are excluded from this class action procedure.  $5k - $430k/person is available for those cases.  Negotiations for legal fees remain in a range $25-$40-Million.  The religious organizations (Catholic/Anglican/United/Presbyterian) have contributed $80-Million (in cash or in-kind healing programs) towards the settlement fund.

Yukon Residential Schools include Carcross (Chooulta), Coudert Hall (Whitehorse Hostel/Student Residence - replaced by Yukon Hall), Shingle Point (replaced by All Saints, Aklavik), Whitehorse Baptist Mission & Yukon Hall (Whitehorse/Protestant Hostel).  Most Catholic families attended at Lower Post in BC.  When ratified, it is the intent that application forms and assistance will be available at the above website and local First Nations Admin offices w/o cost to the survivor or Estate.  It should not be necessary to hire an advocate for submissions.  Justice Ron Veale and the horde of proponent lawyers are doing an excellent job of explaining options and realities.  It is unfortunate that the Settlement tarnishes the well run schools;  and attendance at some was optional;  but based on the number of potential claimants, it is estimated that the litigation process for all duly harmed may have taken 50 years had a class action solution not been sought.  A universal settlement brings the period down to five years.  Info available at 1-866-879-4913.

TrendLines Background/Overview

Aboriginal Groups - Aboriginal people of Canada is the term used to refer to the First Nations, Inuit, and Métis collectively. First Nations is a term of ethnicity used in Canada that has widely replaced the use of the word “Indian.” It refers to Indigenous peoples of North America located in what is now Canada, and their descendants, who are not Inuit or Métis. Both the Canadian Census and Siggner & Associates research and data refer to the term “Native American Indian” or “NAI”; however, for the purpose of this Notice Plan, the term First Nations will be used in its place.

Residential Schools - The federal government began to play a role in the development and administration of the residential school system for Aboriginal children as early as 1874. The Government of Canada operated nearly every school as a “joint venture” with various religious organizations until 1969, when the federal government assumed total responsibility for the schools. In many instances, church organizations remained actively involved. The schools were located in every province and territory, except Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, although the highest concentration of schools was in British Columbia, the Prairies, and the North. Most of the federally run residential schools closed by the mid-1970’s, with a small number remaining open through the 1980’s. The last federally run residential school in Canada closed in 1996. Aboriginal children were often separated from their families and communities to attend these schools. While not all children had negative experiences at these schools, incidents of physical and sexual abuse have been cited by many former students. Legal claims also allege breach of treaty, loss of education opportunity, forcible confinement and poor conditions at the schools. In addition, because a key objective of the residential school system was the assimilation of Aboriginal children, legal claims allege that the system contributed to a loss of language and culture among Aboriginal people. As a result, the proposed settlement has been reached.

Oct 16th:  Both mandatory recounts (for margins of ten or less) have confirmed the Election Day leads.  Finalized counts show both Inverarity & Edzerza with six vote margins.


Friday, Oct 13th:  A note of gratitude to TrendLiners.  Over the past 45 days, this Blog page had 10,000 server hits & over 3,200 visitors ... most first timers!!  Thanx, eh.


Oct 12th:  Reflections.  The people have spoken.  Many of us may not like some of the individual results or the new Legislature profile (10-5-3), but these are the cards that have been dealt.  In the June 2004 Federal Election, the polls at the midpoint of that Campaign forecast a Conservative Party majority.  You will remember that Stephen Harper mused about his "transition team".  But with seeing a Party that had only "just" merged (Alliance & PC's), a wary public came to precipice, pause & reflected; and said "nope, u guyz aren't ready for governance" and allowed Paul Martin and his rascals to continue albeit only with a Minority ... like a leash.

And it retrospect, it was needed.  The Gomery Commission revealed that many high placed Liberals had an undue sense of "entitlement" and Regime Change was in the air.  But even in the January 2006 Federal Election, voters pondered the polls showing a Conservative Majority and backed off.  While they believed a housecleaning was in order, the electorate was not sufficiently convinced that Stephen Harper's Conservatives were ready for unbridled governance ... and were handed a Minority in its stead.

Now let's move the calendar of time to Sept 8th in the Yukon.  Writ dropped.  As u can see in the graph below, in September we are forecasting 6 NDP, 5 YP, 4 Liberal & 3 unallocated MLA's.  No clear mandate on the horizon.  The 3 unallocated represent the recently state of flux Ridings of P/C Centre, Pelly-Nisutlin & Mak-Tak.  The NDP are in disarray 'cuz of Leadership issues.  Todd Hardy had a loyalty crisis and lost two MLA's.  Then a personal one resulting in his health treatment at St Paul's in Vancouver.  From August 2005 to January 2006, the NDP seemed poised for governance.  Minority governance.  Because folks did not see Cabinet material in its present or potential Caucus.  By June their fortunes had fallen to four potential MLA's and even before Mr Hardy's medical misfortune, the NDP had been relegated to the "rebuilding" arena.  This Election was the NDP's to lose.  And they did.  Six months ago.

Next in line at writ drop was the YP with five potential MLA's.  Many of our Respondents in poll surveys like the idea of a right wing gov't and the YP ... but not Dennis Fentie.  There is the perception that he has not completely shed his ok'ness with heroin trafficking as a part of urban life;  including old friends;  and that the Yukon's lack of stomping on infiltrators is based on a lack of his commitment at the top.  People whisper about his later use of pot, the Watson Lake smoke buddies and recent abuse of alcohol.  And his quasi-adulterous, Cabinet office romance.  And his inability to keep Cabinet Ministers from cronyism and self serving conflicts of interest.  And his top down autocratic discipline.  No doubt a survival technique learned when one is invited to the Federal Penitentiary system for four years (i luv Gary McRobb's football analogy:  went in a tight end ... came out a wide receiver).  In short, an endorsement of Fentie and the YP would indicate that many Yukoners have sold their soul as far as ethics and morals in exchange for the prospect of an unbroken continuity of paycheques and contracts.  He is far from an ideal role model for our young adults and children.  And finally, as the Economy improved, the YP was seen as weak on social issues.  There we have it.  A year ago, many in the Party wanted a change of Leadership, but nobody was being groomed and they were stuck with Dennis Fentie and all his baggage;  the worst being his refusal to better the Party's and his own' public relations.  He and the Cabinet are seen as aloof and uncaring.  But it is widely known that right wing Parties are the ticket to prosperity and with a similar sentiment on the National scene, there is merit in an alliance.  This Election was lost by Fentie a year ago.  But nobody else picked up the ball.

At four projected MLA's in September we have the Liberal Party.  Tarnished with corruption charges on the Federal venue, there is some blowback.  In Arthur Mitchell they have a leader that has held the reins for a year and a half but is seldom seen or heard.  He wins in the Copperbelt By-Election, a YP stronghold, likely because constituents see him and the Liberals as their Plan-B.  But as the months go by from November, he is not openly visiting the communities.  He is not openly attending public events as a featured speaker.  He is not seen openly visiting businesses for their input into the Yukon's future.  And he is not seen as a budding issues advocate of First Nations' chiefs or CYFN.  That is not to say Mitchell is not doing some or all of these things.  But it certainly is not being reported.  Another public relations disaster.  Thru March to July, the public watched desperately for Mitchell to show that he had the smarts to be Premier, or alternatively that he could assemble a team that had better Cabinet potential the faltering NDP.  He did neither.  The clock towards the inevitable Election was ticking down and few star candidates came forward.  This Election was the Liberals to lose.  And they did.  Three months ago.

So what were the voters to do?  It seems that all three Parties were having their issues.  And all three Parties were obviously having troubles attracting quality candidates.  On that point, money is an issue.  A Yukon MLA get $29-k.  Not worth dumping a good job for.  And good people in the private and civil service sectors stayed away in droves.  There was one alternative.  Let's dump the partisan Party system if we don't have the critical mass to get enuf good candidates for even one Party and vote in some Independents.  Real ones.  Not the single issue whako's.  The Yukon flirted with that idea and we saw Independent sentiment rise to 21% in our polls.  In 1992, three Indies were elected with 13% popularity.  One was invited to Cabinet.  But alas, for some of the same money reasons, there were few takers and that move towards Consensus waned.  This Election was the Indies to lose.  And the did.  Three months ago.

That brings us to Oct 10th.  The campaign is winding down.  Hardy looks weak and tired.  Mitchell fools DataPath and CBC into believing Regime Change is in the air due to his finally making an excellent appearance in the Leaders Forum.  But those polls only reflected a fleeting moment of passion and emotion that was related to the Debate and Party Leader preference.  In the following hours and days, folks remembered that they must vote for their local candidate and the realities that for the most part Mitchell had been weak and his team was lacking ... set in.  And the peak Liberal sentiment seen in September could not be rekindled.  For one, i am convinced that this Election was Mitchell's to lose.  The Party chose to closet him in silence thru the Summer and they lost on that strategy.  Seeing status quo as the best alternative ... for the Yukon and for their own jobs, voters did nothing.  Nothing.  As discussed Election nite, the Yukon Party mirrored its 2002 support concentrations.  The NDP are virtually unchanged save Old Crow and even their former colleagues in Mayo-Tatchun & Kluane were returned.  Few new faces.  Voters are pleased with the present Economy.  But they know it is tedious.  They know much of it is based on the initiative of "grant whores."  But they have mortgages, kids, truck loans & want some more toys.  There was too much uncertainty and too much to lose by changing Captains.  Again voters came to the precipice of Change, soberly paused & reflected ... and said "nope, we ain't goin' there.  Too green.  Too much baggage.  Too dangerous just when the things are going good.  And they bestowed a second mandate on the Yukon Party.  And best, the jinx of consistently "voting out govt's" is over!

A year ago many Yukoners were bitchin' & sreamin' & handwaving.  But given the opportunity for Change, they almost all paused & reflected.  They did not have confidence in the alternatives as presented.  Real or perceived matters not.  Congratulations to Dennis Fentie and the Yukon Party on squeaking out a Majority against great odds.  But beware of attrition.  Yesterday was the first day of the next Campaign.  An Election is less than sixty months away.  The Leg' profile can change at any moment.  The bitchin' & screamin' & handwaving will shortly commence again.  Another cycle.  But another chance for those in each Party (or Indept's) to recognize their faults, rebuild and work on their new presentations.  Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda aside, we all have a clean slate to play with today.  All of us...


Oct 11th (3pm update):  Hey, we called yesterday's order of finish and 12 of 18 Ridings.  BTW, where does one go to pickup their Red Lantern award?!!


Oct 11th (3am update):  Ahh, the pony tail is safe!  Last month i bet that i'd beat the 2002 DataPath record of 8 correct riding calls.  Well, this year Donna Larsen picked 9 ... TrendLines forecast 12.  As well, we called the order of finish!

Oct 11th (4am update): The Yukon Party has virtually and incredibly matched their 2002 results.  With a 1% gain over 2002, all MLA's are back except Edzerza, Hassard, Jenkins & Arntzen.  Horne replaces Hassard in Pelly-Nisutlin. Nordick replaces (YP turned Indie) Jenkins.  The YP has almost mirrored its 2002 support concentrations.  The NDP lost Lorraine Peter but gain Edzerza.  The Liberals gain Inverarity (replacing Duncan) & Elias in Old Crow.

 

Oct 11th (2pm update): We've applied the Elections Yukon results to last week's Oct 7th TrendLines survey.  On several head-to-head polls, we have shown the Yukon Party with greater support than DataPath. That was repeated last week.  We said the Yukon Party was in first place in Yukon-wide popular opinion with a 3% lead. DataPath called the Liberals 3% ahead (see their graph below).  We are pleased to have called the correct order of finish!

 


 

We've applied the Elections Yukon results to last week's DataPath survey.  The Art Mitchell Leaders Forum bump seems to be overstated.

Oh and for trivia lovers and purists, yes our longstanding boast that our July Update would top DataPath's 2002 record (of only 8 correct calls) came to fruition.  Our July Update correctly called 9 Ridings!  Same as her 820 call Oct 5th survey...


Oct 10th (6pm update):  This is a nail-biting time for pollsters.  Our survey ended Saturday and our results are vulnerable to at least two factors.  First is the peel-off of the Undecided.  Where will they go?  Even splits or all to one Candidate.  Second, which Candidate in each Constituency has the better "get-out-the-vote team"?  Scrutineers, drivers and phone volunteers all have their different tasks on Election Day.  And how good was the team and candidate identification?  Ideally one only want to get out "their own" vote ... not the competition's.  Not at play today is weather.  Certain Parties do better in good and bad weather.  And certain Parties do better in certain seasons ... when their supporters are not Outside or away working.  We also have some traditions in play.  No Indept's have been elected since 1992 (3).  And the governing Party has been voted out for almost two decades.  Disproportional representation may rear its ugly head once again.  The classic was 2002 with the Liberals attaining second place in the vote with 29% Yukon-wide support, but only elected a single MLA (Pat Duncan).

Our new polling sample is only half the size that we did in our premiere survey in July/Aug-2005.  It was difficult to maintain that standard and run in the campaign as well (Kluane).  Where we had advance notice of full slates, we used data from May, June & July.  Slightly contaminated by date, eh.  It was a very difficult decision to take time away from canvassing go with small samplings when we have our excellent Copperbelt & Federal Riding records in the vest.  But polling has been sixteen year exercise that is hard to resist when u'r a political junkie.

My first run at public office was quite an experience.  Quite different than being a "back room" volunteer or strategist.  The usual dirty tricks flourished.  We gave and received.  The practice of Yukon Special Ballots blindsided us.  But i saw much of Kluane, chatted with many about real issues (not fluff), met some great characters, was showered with gifts, surprised with non-Riding donations and well wishes;  meandered around many elk and a few bison in laneways;  and lost 20 pounds!!  Evalina and i have some long term plans.  Moving to Kluane on Discovery Day and running in the Election facilitates some of those goals.  Running as an Independent makes a Statement but paved the road to defeat.  And then there's my predicted prospect of attaining only 13 votes back in September.  Splitting the Right was not smart if one is a rightwinger.  Unless it helps to prevent a second mandate when one is not deserved; and allows one of like mind to implement some much needed reforms...

Editorials and rants aside, now let's see how the nite went:     

    Yukon Party NDP Liberals Indep't
Elections Yukon:   10 MLA's - 41% (1st) 3 MLA's - 23% (3rd) 5 MLA's - 35% (2nd) 0 MLA's - 1% (4th)
TrendLines:   7 MLA's - 35% (1st) 6 MLA's - 31% (3rd) 5 MLA's - 32% (2nd) 0 MLA's - 2% (4th)
DataPath:   x MLA's - 34% (2nd) x MLA's - 25% (3rd) x MLA's - 37% (1st) x MLA's - 4% (4th)

.

Correctly called Ridings:   correct: wrong:
TrendLines:  12 correct

6 wrong

0 no calls

Survey of 217 Decided

(For the record, even our July Update correctly called 9 Ridings)

  Copperbelt

Lake Laberge

Mayo -Tatchun

Mount Lorne

Pelly-Nisutlin

P/C Center

P/C South

Riverdale South

Vuntut Gwitchin

Watson Lake

W~h Centre

W~h West

Klondike

Kluane

McIntyre-Takhini

P/C North

Riverdale North

Southern Lakes

DataPath:  9 correct

3 wrong

6 no calls

Survey of 665 Decided

  Copperbelt

Kluane

Lake Laberge

Mayo -Tatchun

Pelly-Nisutlin

Riverdale South

Southern Lakes

Watson Lake

W~h Centre

McIntyre-Takhini

Mount Lorne

Vuntut Gwitchin

no forecasts for:

 Klondike

P/C Center

P/C North

P/C South

Riverdale North

W~h West


Oct 10th:  The polling stations are open.  The turnout is good.  And the weather is awesome for voting day.  There are about 600 more voters this year (18,659) than in 2002.  Rate dropped to 72% from 80%.  See the comparisons between today's results and the TrendLines/DataPath projections ... later tonite.


Oct 2nd-8th:  Aside from some very minor tabulations, we are close to our final summary.  TrendLines is projecting a Yukon Party Minority after 18 of 18 Ridings re-polled in our Sept/Oct Yukon Political Update.  While the YP may have the most MLA's, it is TrendLines opinion and recommendation that the Liberals & NDP will strike a two-year formal Coalition and present this to the Commissioner for consideration for stable governance.

This is the profile after polling 18 of 18 Ridings:  The 3 "others" reflect Duncan's decision not to seek re-election in P/C South; Hassard leaving Pelly-Nisutlin after our July Update and the absence of an Indep't to represent the phantom in Mak-Tak by Nomination Day.  The see-saw battle in Lake Laberge continues and Brad Cathers reclaims the lead.  Newcomer Dave Hobbis steals P/C North from Cheeseman.  The phantom Indie in Mak-Tak gives way to Vicki Durrant (YP) in Oct and Taylor reclaims W~h West.  The huge news is the Lorraine Peter loss to Darius Elias in Vuntut Gwitchin.  Marian Horne will retain Pelly-Nisutlin for the YP.  Lil Grubach-Hambrook seems poised to take Kluane.

 

TrendLines Projected Win Ridings

 Yukon Party  NDP  Liberals
 35% Opinion Support  31% Opinion Support  32% Opinion Support
 7 Ridings  6 Ridings   5 Ridings
Riverdale South (Sep6) Southern Lakes (Sep5) Riverdale South (Sep22)
Lake Laberge (Sep7) Porter Creek North (Sep19) Vuntut Gwitchin (Oct3)
McIntyre-Takhini (Oct2) W~h Center (Oct4) P/C South (Oct4)
W~h West (Oct2) Mount Lorne (Oct7) Mayo Tatchun (Oct6)
P/C Center (Oct7) Klondike (Oct7) Copperbelt (Oct7)
Pelly-Nisutlin (Oct7) Kluane (Oct7)  
Watson Lake (Oct7)    

At left are the Popular Opinion results after polling 18 of 18 Ridings.  We've modified this graph dramatically.  Whereas Oct/2005 to June/2006 illustrate our rolling poll figures (100-day avg), July/Sept/Oct are now showing only the respective monthly samplings.  The margin of error is higher (8% vs 5%), but this view better represents the volatility in play.


.
Poll Results in 18 of 18 Ridings:  
Russ Hobbis &  David Hedmann are introduced to "the question" but the Liberal Leader has a very safe seat.
Steve Nordick, Steve Taylor & Glen Everitt are introduced to "the question" while Peter Jenkins is withdrawn.  A sure win for the NDP.
Freddy Hutter (no relation!) & Lillian Grubach-Hambrook are introduced to "the question".  One is getting the 13 votes predicted & the other has the slightest of leads that may win this Riding for the NDP.

The 3-way see-saw battle continues... Tim Zeigdel has since Withdrawn.  A tedious YP win.

 Jeannie van Bibber and Karen Gage are introduced to "the question".  Race getting tighter but we're giving it to Liberals.

John Edzerza (now as an NDP) & Vicki Durrant (now with YP) are introduced to "the question".  Tight YP win.

Colleen Wirth and Val Bloxall are introduced to "the question".  But Steve Cardiff will retain the Riding.
Dean Hassard is withdrawn and re-entered in P/C South.  Marian Horne, Hammond Dick & Gwen Wally are introduced to "the question".  The YP will retain this Riding.
David Laxton & Kate White are introduced to "the question".  Lang continues in phoenix fashion and a likely but narrow YP win.

Dave Hobbis is introduced to "the question" and it seems we have a new leader and an NDP win.

Dean Hassard, Samson Hartland & Don Inverarity are introduced to "the question".  Dean Hassard is the current MLA from Pelly-Nisutlin and attempting a Riding change.  But we're giving this one to the Liberals.  
Jim McCullough & Lesley Cabott are introduced to "the question".  The Liberals lead is extended in a tight race with the Speaker.  A very tight Liberal win.
Remarkable comeback for Glenn Hart.  A YP win assured.

With Liberal weakness, no "split the left" advantage for Rouble.  An NDP win assured.

Darius Elias & William Josie are introduced to "the question".  It appears a dramatic changing of the guard is at hand in Old Crow with an assured Liberal win.
Rick Harder, Rachael Lewis & Dale Worsfold are introduced to "the question".  Yukon Party leader has a very safe seat.
Jerry Johnson and Bernie Phillips are introduced and Vicki Durrant has been withdrawn (& re-entered in Mak-Tak) from "the question".  Those 32 volunteers have put the NDP over the top.  NDP leader has a very safe seat.
Rhoda Merkel is introduced to "the question".  We bet Mike really wanted a November Election to make more inroads.  However, time has run out.  A tight race and YP win.

This Sept/Oct Update of our rolling poll survey is based on responses from 217 Decided voters from May28-Oct7.  The survey has about a 7% Undecided factor with a Margin of Error of 6¼% for the Yukon-wide Party Popular Opinion and an avg 28% for the individual Ridings.  P/C North includes calls from May.  Lake Laberge incl calls from June.  Riverdale South & Southern Lakes incl calls from July.  There were no calls in August.  All others incl Sept or Oct calls only.


Oct 6th:  DataPath has released its Election Forecast.  In 2002, Donna Larsen revealed 15 of 18 Riding leaders.  She only got 8 correct.  Today she has revealed 12 leading candidates:  5 YP, 5 Liberals & 2 NDP.  She does not commit to a Liberal or YP win by Majority or Minority.  Her Yukon-wide opinion support figures are 37% Liberals, 34% YP, 25% NDP & 4% Indep't.  We had commented that in her small sample August poll, she had missed the fall-from-grace of the NDP.  Her new larger poll now catches that sentiment.  But, while TrendLines shows the Liberals & NDP in a tie at 31%, DataPath is showing a variance of 6% in each direction.  Thus, while DataPath shows a 3% Liberal lead, we see a 4% YP lead.  Comments on how this affects my pony tail shortly!

DataPath Press Release excerpt - Based on the population and the sample size, which determines the margin of error in each riding, the 7 candidates who are now currently above the margin of error are: Arthur Mitchell, Gary McRobb, Ed Schultz, Eric Fairclough, Patrick Rouble, Dennis Fentie and Todd Hardy. Candidates who are ahead, but within the margin of error are Brad Cathers, Colleen Wirth, Marian Horne, Glenn Hart and Lorraine Peter.
Based on this poll, winning a majority government is not beyond reach for the Yukon Party, however, it is more likely that the Liberals will be challenging the Yukon Party for a minority government.
The survey was conducted by DataPath Systems; an independent Yukon-based market research company. Telephone and on-line surveys were conducted with 821 Yukon residents, 374 Whitehorse residents and 447 non-Whitehorse residents between Oct 1 and Oct 5. The data is weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender. Percentages are statistically valid to +/- 3.9%

Oct 5th:  I was in my first all-candidates forum last nite.  Jim Bowers of the YP was a no-show.  I have a good chance now to attain my forecast of 13 votes for myself in Kluane.


Oct 2nd:  Remember James Allen?  The Champagne Aishihik First Nations chief that demanded a Casino the first week of the Election campaign.  The same chief that spoke against me on CBC under the skilful guidance of Peter Carr and Rose Kushniruk.  Yet the same chief who was instrumental in asking the School Council to fire Evalina.  We exposed him and his (their) motives at TrendLines.  And well, he ain't the chief anymore.  He lost by ten votes tonite in the CAFN Elections.  True justice prevails.

His departure, maybe a setup in itself, makes Darrel Peters and Bob Lucas the happiest two guys in the Yukon.  Why?  'Cuz they think that after the Election they're on the gravy train.  At least that's what they've told TrendLines in the past.  The beer was flowing at the High Country Inn.  I was with Brad Cathers.  And the boasting commenced.

Peters says he has the Carcross site chosen and his team in place.  They're working with Carcross/Tagish First Nations.  And money is no object.

Lucas says he has the W~h site chosen and his team in place.  They're working with Kwanlin Dun First Nations.  And money is no object.

Both are well known on the poker circuit.  Peters' further boasts that his home is one of the premiere hosting locales in town ... and renovations will make it even bigger.  Cathers never said a word.  Seemed disgusted.  And left.  Pissing contests can do that.

There was only One Problem.  Chief James Allen.  The guy who wants to build & manage his own Casino.  When Allen made the headlines in September, it is said that not even sexual conquests could keep Premier Dennis Fentie from racing to the media microphones to denounce the evils of Casinos (at least those in Takhini on the western W~h border, eh!).  Not knowing what was going on, the Opposition Leaders chimed in "yeah, us too, eh!"  This was the first of many to come ... all three of us agree themed Election announcements.  But i digress.  Chief Allen's loss clears the way for Patronage galore for Yukon Party stalwarts.  Let's call it CasinoGate for lack of a moniker.

Darrel Peters is past president of the Yukon Party.  Director Bob Lucas is one of their main bag men, er ... fundraisers.  Last October i accused Fentie of being beholden to Party markers.  Is this one of them?  Are the sudden epiphanies (anti-drugs, anti-Casino, anti-greenhouse gases, anti-etc) during the Election campaign just more of the sick tactics that have over time made the electorate so very cynical?  Does Fentie have an Agenda that was blocked by Chief Allen of CAFN & the fact that Edzerza's August flight across-the-floor left the Yukon Party short a vote in that long alluded to Fall Sitting?  Do we really want to give Fentie and the cronies a second chance (aka mandate)?  Is this about good governance or is it about control and helping old friends to the trough.  Patronage and Corruption.  Then Imagine TomorrowImagine Tomorrow run by a team with the ethics and morals of street punks.

Last week's gunshots downtown were turf war related.  Drugs move freely in the Yukon, a Territory run by a convicted (but pardoned) heroin trafficker.  Peter Mansbridge of CBC said tonite that the North's spouse abuse is more than 50% higher than the national average.  He went on to say that the Yukon's sexual abuse rate is three times the nat'l avg.  And we have a Premier accused of inappropriate sexual misconduct in the Cabinet workplace according to a MLA.  We are going to hell in a hand basket and this cannot continue.  Folks, please connect the dots by Thanksgiving Day!!


Oct 1st:  Between now and the Election we'll be releasing our September Yukon Political Update as previewed in the SubscriberVenue starting Sept 5th.


Sept 30th:  The Yukon Party re-unveils its new election logo.  But Dennis Fentie's girls are gone.  Did some "imagine" too much?  Hmmm.  Three more TrendLiners have verified Gary McRobb's allegations of sexual misconduct in the Premier's Office.  Same two names keep coming up.  We won't print the victim's name.  It appears that the other women left so as not to be whispered about as being "the one".

We'll wait for the stud to come forward on his own to "do the right thing."  Or like 2002, will it be another "i did not have sexual relations with that woman!"  No, wrong guy.  Try again:  "i was given a four year sentence for heroin trafficking;  but i was given a pardon".  Geez, if he loses the Election next week, he could be poster boy for those Pardons-r-Us infomercials on cbc and aptn.  Seriously, do u remember hearing of a Vancouver float plane company relocating to "Watson Lake?".  I hear they have had a celebrity apply for the general mgr position...

Whether it's disclosure via a mea culpa or a Union Grievance, this SignGate story is breaking sooner that hoped, eh.  Todd Hardy may just get Thanksgiving on a silver platter.  Stay tuned...

 


Sept 29th:  Todd Hardy is home!  His turn for CBC-Radio's Lunch Break call-in show on Monday & he intends to participate in their (to be broadcast) Leaders Forum on Wednesday.   Every time u see him and think he coulda used another four weeks to recover ... thank Dennis, eh.


Sept 28th:  Overheated.  Overheated.  Overheated.  Frankly speaking, Dennis Fentie has no economic background and as such has shown that he does not fully comprehend modern Budget vocabulary and structure nor a Budget's ramification on the Economy.

In taking tons of money from Ottawa, it was incumbent on the Premier (as Finance Minister) to spend it wisely and timely.  He did neither.  The Leg' will deeply miss the tallies by Klondike MLA Peter Jenkins of millions upon millions wasted by YTG in the current mandate and brought to light by the former YP Cabinet Minister.  Much hidden in legal and consultant fees and subcontracting.

In yet to be released figures, Statistics Canada will shortly reveal that the Yukon economy grew at 7.8% in 2005 and our GDP is now $1.522-Billion.  3%-4% is considered prudent.  And this up from 6% in 2004.  By asking the Fed's for a ton of money and not spreading it wisely, the Yukon paid a heavy price in terms of shortages of building lots, YESAB delays, high construction costs on infrastructure projects, etc etc.  In short, we grew too fast.  The new money and prosperity brought an end to the falling population and we have seen on average, twenty new families come to the Yukon ... mainly Whitehorse.

At the same time, NIMBY (not in my back yard) forces were delaying or outright road blocking new residential development.  The net effect was that our convention of having a two year supply of building lots in each of our communities quickly evaporated.  Home prices took off.  And tomorrow it will be "rents" that follow.  Excessive inflation that is not sustainable.  When the cost of living gets out of whack like this, young families cannot stay.  Our College and University students now Outside may not come home.  They know that Yukon wages have not risen with the cost of living here.

Read the Fentie Budgets.  Don't listen to his two hour twenty minute speech.  Unlike almost every other modern day jurisdiction, Fentie does not address traditional economic factors.  While he does incorporate a five year forecast of the numbers, his Budget document is simply the release of financial statements.  He does not address Yukon Inflation forecasts.  He does not address the Yukon Unemployment Rate.  Nor GDP.  Nor sector ramifications, shortages and surpluses.  Nor welfare numbers or housing shortages.  Not affordable housing nor social housing.

Plainly speaking, Dennis Fentie is an economic neophyte driving blind.  He is single-handedly overheating the Economy with no concept of the short, medium or long term ramifications.  And we are left with outrageous real estate prices and shortages of skilled labour.  And when they say "what goes up must come down" ... they mean RECESSION.  The present Budget team is Dangerous to the average Yukoner.  The Legislature needs a team that understands these factors and includes an Economic Statement in the Budget.  Same as everybody else.  The Yukon should not be run by cowboys...


Hey, today is our first anniversary of the TrendLines Blog!  Thanx for all your emails, calls & wishes of encouragement when we meet.


Sept 27th:  Folks, to my chagrin, i owe the Yukon News an apology (gagging moment).  The photo of Fentie (and Todd Hardy) we have been using was sent in by a TrendLiner ('cuz ours were said to be too cheerful).  At moments of weakness, i fell into the trap of painting them as monsters 'cuz it suited the blog-of-the-day.  Well, yesterday's FentiePic will soon be off the mastheads of the three pages with Election/Politics news, voluntariliy.

We thought our receipt (July 24) of the seemingly doctored FentiePic was an internet distribution by a prankster.  And as stated earlier, The Yukon News is not one of my favourite mediums because they seem to be paraphrasing/plagiarising my commentary in their editorials, articles & captions; so i was reluctant to stop using it w/o credit just on their say-so.  They claimed it came from their website in June.  I didn't even know they had one at that time.  But in searching our own archive these past few days (due to SignGate), i have traced FentiePic back to a known TrendLiner.  Our most prolific one, actually.  Gary McRobb.  Yes, the Dipper turned Liberal MLA.

And apparently, after more than a year of late nite phone calls, a ton of emails and jumping his battery ... i have become his ex-friend since i filed my Nomination papers.  Unfortunate.  And what a difference a contest makes.  In August i was drinking beer in his kitchen.  Now in public, he is holier-than-thou and doesn't know me.  I learned these past 18 days that some will do anything to score votes.  Hmmm.


Sept 26th:  Remember my Vive la difference Blog last month?

 

 

             vs          (TYN photo removed)

 

 

 

Well, today it's lookin' like Bosom Buddies!  Mrs Tie Domi says her rascal was intimate with Belinda.  Yes ... THE Belinda.  The cross-the-floor Liberal MP.  And also with the babe from Relic Hunter.  Wow!  They're in the middle of a Separation battle.

So what is the Yukon connection u ask?  Well, the person to ask is Liberal MLA Gary McRobb.  Along with other TrendLiners, he has been helpful in connecting the dots in the developing SignGate blog ... and he has named names.  And this one goes to the top dog (stud?).  Gary has been a bit of a jerk lately ('cuz we're in a competition), but to his credit he has never lied to us at TrendLines.  But just in case, we're double and triple checking to avoid more of those lawyer et al letters that go on our wall of fame (inflame?).

Leanne Domi was scorned and angry.  Good thing it's evening now.  If SignGate has legs, can u imagine the scene if mrs fentie called during CBC's Lunch Break today to ask the Premier "a question" during his call-in show?  Whoa.  He probably would have walked off the cbc set (again).

Seriously, the allegations that one or more Cabinet Ministers is involved with inappropriate sexual touching in the workplace (of a subordinate) is a far larger story than a sex scandal.  If it involves or was sanctioned by the Premier (and several TrendLiners are giving us the same perpetrator/victim names), it adds another layer of disrepute on the character of Yukon Party and Yukon Territory leadership.  A fling does not as such affect the goings on of the Yukon Territory or one's abilities in managing on-the-job.  But on top of an alleged composite of heroin trafficking, smoke buddies, alcohol to excess, aloofness, control-freak, etc etc; presumed infidelity may be the straw where Yukoners say to themselves that this is not the fellow we want at the top or representing us in ottawa or internationally.  One capable of these things is not a role model for our kids or young adults.

Unfortunately, by our present electoral system, the only way to rid the region of Fentieism, is to punish the Yukon Party MLA's that did not do the right thing at their recent AGM's leadership review.  During the 2002 election campaign, many in the YP chose to stay quiet about the four year prison sentence to gain a WIN.  The present allegations have been circling since Christmas it appears.  Again, many (but not all) of the YP Directors and MLA's are silent and "crossing their fingers" hoping that nothing breaks by Thanksgiving Day.  It is the basis of our snap election.  It is why Todd Hardy will miss the two Leader's debates whilst assured by Fentie at St Paul's Hospital that inclusion of the former NDP colleague was desired.  Another broken promise.  I leave it to TrendLiners to decide whether this is idle gossip, an affair of no concern ... or time for Change.

My harsh assessment of the Yukon Party leadership does not imply that Art Mitchell is our man of the hours.  While he is correct in his assertion that "this Election is about ethics and integrity,"  the Liberal Party is far from the answer.  They are presently Canada's poster child of CORRUPTION.  And Art Mitchell cannot say that Yukon Liberals are different after wrapped himself in the Federal Liberal flag for months after their Defeat in January.  He was as anti Stephen Harper and the newly elected Conservatives as the staunchest stalwart.  He is not believable on the topic of Ethics and Integrity.  Perhaps Todd Hardy is, but the Dippers are is disarray.  Minority Gov't is the best medicine in these circumstances.


Sept 25th:  MLA Gary McRobb, recently excommunicated from the NDP, seems to be making a bad situation worse.  The Yukon News is reporting that he is politicizing the Champagne water problem by playing the blame game.  Over the weekend he has attacked both YTG & INAC (Indian & Northern Affairs Canada)for lax due diligence which he purports allowed this situation to arise.  In actuality, the issue involves only private wells ... all maintained by CAFN (Champagne Aishihik First Nations).  Initial routine tests last week revealed low radioactivity levels in the Community Centre well at Champagne.   Later testing found the same substances in seven of the eleven homes of the hamlet.  An expanded regiment of soil/water tests has revealed that the more likely cause of recent illness expressed anecdotally in the hamlet are based on careless dumping by one or more past or present residents.  The new samples include engine coolant, paint thinner & BHT (preservative) which have seeped into the aquifer feeding the shallow wells.  The dissolved radon gas producing the alpha and beta radioactivity is normal on Canadian Shield lands and is usually filterable with conventional water softeners with residue safely discharged to septic tanks.  For updates on the Champagne water problem, visit my Election website.

I have an obvious conflict in this discussion, but having said that, it is clear that soon-to-be former MLA Gary McRobb is again chasing the wrong rabbit.  He is well suited in his new Liberal duds as he fails to comprehend that the real issue here is who was/is doing the illegal dumping and have they all stopped.  The testing protocol is the symptom, not the problem.  But that would be pointing fingers and assigning responsibility, eh.


Sept 24th:  Note another Leaders Forum - hosted by CBC at the High Country Inn (see Timeline above) on Oct 4th.


Sept 23nd:  Evalina got a luv letter from Yukon Education.  Fired for "off duty conduct."  She has been told that living under the same roof and being of like mind to a Blogger is a dangerous thing in the Yukon.  Let's call it "financial vigilantism!"  And it seems that Denis Gauthier, Director of Education & Deputy Minister Gordon McDevitt have been recruited as lieutenants in Dennis Fentie's vendetta quest.  Even with a Pardon, i guess "Once an ex-con ... always an ex-con."  Being his nemesis has sure stirred alotta muck this past year, eh!  Stay tuned... we will see over the next 17 days that the Premier lives in interesting times!

A kind soul forwarded what will likely be the basis for her "wrongful dismissal" case one would say.  plus defamation.  plus preventing the earning of income.  etc etc:


Relect the Yukon Party

Sept 22nd:  Day 14 of the Campaign and the rumoured story (SignGate) behind the sign is getting clearer.  Apparently the ladies we mentioned last week are not involved in the sense most of us assumed.  The alleged misconduct is sexual in nature alright and is centred in the Cabinet office where at least three young women have departed; two are no longer shown on the Yukon Party website directory of Directors/Executive.  At least one MLA is naming names and we are led to believe that inappropriate activity among staff may lead to an "Oct 11th" mea culpa to avert Union Grievance action and subsequent embarrassing "tell all" hearings.  Keep those cards & letters comin' boys and girls...

This week saw the Liberal Party touting ethics and accountability.  Well that's an oxymoron.  Uh, wasn't it the Liberal Party that crashed & burned on a non-confidence vote on CORRUPTION?!!  Oh please.  But this sign story has legs.  If true, it goes to the very core values of honesty, integrity, trust and character (or lack thereof) of authority figures at YTG.  And all the while, the Premier is asking voters to believe his "last second" epiphany on drugs and casinos.  Oh please.  (gagging episode)  Only Todd Hardy enters this campaign and maintains a level of truth with the electorate consistently.  It is unfortunate he'll miss the Leader's Forum.  He would have shined among the Pinocchios.


Sept 21st:  Note the Leader's Forum (see Timeline above) sponsored by the Yukon Chamber of Commerce.  David Morrison will moderate with predetermined questions.  Send yours, eh.


Sept 20th Update:  Congrat's - A first time visitor presently at our website (2:55 to 3:00pm) from the Yukon and using a Northwestel connection (IP#207.189.229.187) is our 100,000th server hit!!  Please call 867.634.2266 for a free subscription to our September real time graphs or send an email to us.


Sept 20th:  I started the TrendLines Blog on "Sept 27th 2005."  Since then my life has been pretty well an open book.  While it started as a bunch of us idealists on a quest to purge our Yukon Party of its Leadership, i've since been able to share my interests in climate change, energy resources, economics and politics.  I've had hundreds of emails, phone calls and taps on the shoulder thanking me for my studies and comments and frankly this encourages me to continue this hobby out-of-control.  So popular, that we had to split the venue ... and initiate theYUKON.tv portal to service the awesome regional interest in my adopted home North of 60.  To celebrate this milestone, we have another.  Today Evalina and i celebrate that some viewer from the 90 Nations that frequent our realm will give the TrendLines/theYUKON.tv server  its 100,000th HIT.  Yup.  Neat, eh!!  And we've attained that threshold with 32,777 new visitors.  This includes theYukon.tv spinoff site which commenced in May & its 3,000th new visitor will pass at about 10am today!  Again, i'm humbled.  Thanx muchly!!


Sept 19th Update:  Watson Lake Update - Dale Worsfold Declared as Indep't.  Lake Laberge Update - Tim Zeigdel Withdraws as Indep't (final slate of 58 candidates).

Sept 18th Update:  Pelly-Nisutlin Update - Gwen Wally Acclaimed for NDP;  Kluane Update - Lillian Grubach-Hambrook Acclaimed for NDP;  Watson Lake Update - Rachael Lewis Acclaimed for NDP (#58 on slate of 58).  The latter two are this Election's Paper Candidates.  Lillian lost in Copperbelt in 2002.  And TrendLiners know that Raphael has too many losses to list for reasons of space.  There is no word of any Declared, Nominated or Acclaimed candidates that failed to file their final documentation or any last minute surprises.  We have 16 Incumbents;  16 females;  14 First Nation Candidates; 6 Cabinet Ministers & 4 Indept's.  If just under 2% of the population is gay or lesbian, there should be at least one in a crowd of 58 but none Declared.

Sept 17th Update:  Klondike Update - Glen Everitt Declared as Indep't (#55 on slate of 58).  No comment.


Sept 17th:  Copperbelt Update - David Hedman Declared for NDP;  P/C Center Update - Kate White Declared for NDP (#54 on slate of 57).

I am troubled that Yukoners are about to engage in Regime Change still without having seen Art Mitchell in action w/o briefing notes.  Almost all who meet him agree that he's a nice guy.  Charming.  Well groomed.  Entertaining.  Some say he is honest has integrity.  And he's a concensus builder.  So far good, eh.  But in 18 months, i've never heard him give a speech that was not mostly fluff.  It would be nice to know that if we elect him as Premier, likely with Minority status, that if he gets a microphone stuck in his face or meets a CEO, he can speak on at least one issue with some depth.  Like the Sue Greetham campaign, Mitchell's rise to fame has been in a protected shell where he reads from notes, or talks of topics and headlines only.

One does not come from him saying, "hey, i learned something from that."  His pleasantries style may have served him well at Re/Max, but it does nothing to sway his critics (of all persuasions) that fear that he is an airhead.  This week i could not find a transcript of his much anticipated Chamber of Commerce speech.  This weekend i asked him and his Party for it.  Nothing.  Only Subscribers are aware of my present Riding Projection, but it is no secret that the Liberals are not in Majority territory.  I maintain that one of the reasons for lack of voter enthusiasm and the failure for him to attract more star candidates lies in his failure to shine as a resource person.  This doesn't mean he can't be a good Premier.  He can be cunning and surround himself with excellent people in his inner circle and Cabinet.  He just won't be a GREAT Premier.  From his performance in Question Period, Committee of the Whole and especially the Budget deliberations, Mitchell is hardly a heavyweight.

Mitchell's lack of stature is a good thing.  A Minority Gov't will teach the present players that extend their MLA status to compromise and drop much of the partisan crap that we witness in the Leg'.  The governing Party will be forced to accommodate the Opposition.  The cockiness must stop.  And i see Art's weakness as best thing for the Yukon at this juncture.  The campaign is young and we have seen little in the way of the three Party Platforms and election dynamics.  Tomorrow we will know all the Candidates.  Several Ridings can see their sentiment change on that news.  It will be an interesting week.


Relect the Yukon Party

Sept 16th:  Last week, TrendLines openly questioned "why the snap Election?" when the Premier had taken the trouble to visit Todd Hardy and his doctors at St Paul's Hospital in Vancouver and thereby seeking a new kinder gentler image.  What changed in a matter of days?  Certainly not Todd.  He's in remission!  We were given a heads-up on "Writ Day plus one" that the snap Election call had a nasty background.  It now appears that this developing rumour (SignGate) has its basis in the number of young women that have left YTG recently and a potential Union Grievance wrt employer misconduct.  If TrendLiners have more to share, let us know...


Klondike Update - - Steve Taylor Declared for Liberals (#52 on slate of 57).


Sept 15th Update BREAKING NEWS  Klondike - Peter Jenkins has decided not to seek re-election.  An era ends...


Sept 15th:  On a personal note i can advise TrendLiners that we attained the full complement (and more) of nominators yesterday and thus i was the first Kluane candidate to submit full documentation to the Returning Office today.  While there was overwhelming support to allow me to voice my take on the issues, i do understand nominations is merely part of the electoral process and may not reflect voter support of my positions.  And as i have said from the beginning, running as an Independent is an overwhelming task and i realize that i could end up with about 13 votes when it's all over.  Only two Indies were elected in the first Party-system Election in 1978 and since then only three others were elected (in 1992).  On the other hand, i can also report that i have overcome the second hurdle:  "name recognition!"

In part it is due to CBC again, in their reporting an update of the June blog that Smoke Buddie's campaign manager pretended to be incensed about.  It appears that Cabinet Communications are up to their dirty tricks again as Peter Carr's counterpart for press releases at Champagne Aishihik First Nations was allegedly his pawn this time.  My June Blog about the Carcross Murder Trial and my trip to Alaska was manipulated by tricksters to present a heavily edited version that this time portrays my quotes as if they were directed at Kluane FN's (not Alaskans and not Carcross).  Our server records illustrate overwhelming circumstantial evidence of simultaneous joint views of our blog by the Cabinet office and CAFN at certain times surrounding my Declaration announcement.

There appears to be an orchestrated effort at work to torpedo my campaign.  CAFN's Rose Kushniruk wall-papered the town with emails with her hateful take on my work.  She chose three lines out of a thousand pages of editorials.  Go to the bottom of this Google page (or the search the YTG site) to see one of many collaborative efforts that she and Peter Carr authored together.  One would wonder if it was to done to decimate my Nomination process efforts.  But it didn't work.  And i again ponder the phrase that bad news is better than no news.  Am i suggesting that Dennis Fentie and Peter Carr are continuing their vendetta?  Am i suggesting that for the second time this Summer they are using First Nations as innocent pawns and tools for their malice?  First Nations issues and problems are sensitive but need addressing.

Apparent interference by the Cabinet Office is not helpful and only inflames and polarizes the participants and stakeholders.   I am notably outspoken and my supporters at TrendLines and beyond appreciate that trait.  It is no secret that it has been my mission to undermine the YP leadership.  They dont' like it.  But a vast many of YP members and Directors do and they are ready to rebuild post-Election.  If the rumours of their involvement are wrong, let them say it.  That it's all a coincidence!  They didn't deny it June 'cuz they know what we know about the goings on and persons involved.  Like Dennis oft says "it's a small place."

Back to Kluane.  CBC's Trisha Estabrooks is visiting the Ridings on a Koffee Klatch tour talking to community residents about local issues.  Kluane was the first yesterday.  It was heated but Trisha, Nancy Thomson and the Lunch Break editor did a fair job today in their Lunch Break segment.  Whereas the June crucifixion was heavily edited and painted me as a monster, this segment allowed me to expound on the background to the blog wherein it was stated that the worst comments were aimed at native american reserves and that my passionate musings were unfortunately written upon arrival back from the Carcross Murder Trial.  It was that venue where the jury and gallery saw the contradictions between the testimony and taped interviews and the excuses of blaming the horrific event on drugs, alcohol and molestation and abuse ... all in the while Johns-Boucher waving the Eagle feather in crazy fashion and obnoxiously/profanely addressing the judge.  I neglected mixing in the usual humour and tongue-in-cheekness that usually softens my writings.  Lesson learned.  I chatted with CBC's Ms Thomson this aft and thanked them for their balance this time (and lifted the summer long blockage of CBC visits from our server).

Crime & Justice is a major plank in my platform.  At village council this week, it was reported that tourism operators are concerned about the Holland-America buses that seem to be passing the Junction by due to the erection of the anti-drug sighs throughout the community.  The signs give the impression of major prob's.  But as the President of the Chamber of Commerce frankly stated to me yesterday, "if we take care of the drug/crime problem, we don't need the signs.  The signs are just a symptom and this First Nations initiative is applauded.

My opponents in Kluane are not McRobb or Bowers.  They are peers and competition for a position that we all quest after.  My opponents are the Casino promoter (CAFN chief), drug traffickers (past and present), child molesters, wife/child beaters and those involved in violent crime.  They want me "to go away" cuz they know my reputation in other jurisdictions and they know that i will be relentless in turning public opinion against their wrongheaded ventures, shutting them down and keeping them locked up.  While the Federal Gov't is moving to mandatory and longer minimum sentences, a movement is afoot to soften bail availability and conditions in the Yukon.  I won't have it ... and neither will most of my supporters who are the good people, wives and kids that want a safe home.  More later...

I have 25 days in which to conduct damage control and share my message with Kluane voters.  It is a gargantuan task but i relish it 'cuz i am confident that i can help residents here and across the Yukon go down the right path.  The dark side is very afraid.  There are many ambassadors out there that are not what they seem.  Or are being misguided and manipulated.  We have a conspiracy of silence to overcome and i hope to be the helping hand.


Sept 14th:  Mount Lorne Update - Val Bloxall Declared for YP (#51 on slate of 57).

Sept 13th:  Mayo-Tatchun Update - Karen Gage Declared for NDP (#50 on slate of 58).

Sept 12th:  P/C South Update - Don Inverarity Acclaimed for the Liberals (#49 on slate of 58).  Don is Exec-Director of the Yukon Entrepreneurship Centre Society and we congratulate Don on his decision and wish him well in his quest to succeed retiring past-Premier Pat Duncan.  With my respect to his adversaries in Porter Creek, he is very capable and would be an asset to the Legislature.  He is very knowledgeable in many areas.  Caveat:  I have worked with Don but he did not pay me for this blatant commercial.  I endorse him as being a genuine Yukoner who will help put the Territory's interests on the front burner.  TrendLiners are familiar with my admiration of this gentleman and know that i held him in high regard in a past blog along with Ed Schultz Mike Lauer, Chuck Hendrie & Dave Sloan were mentioned as well.  Could that mean...?  There's still nine spots open guyz (or Indie status)!

Sept 11th:  Vuntut Gwitchin Update - William Josie Declared for YP;  W~h Centre Update - Jerry Johnson Declares as replacement for YP's Alexia McKinnon & Bernie Phillips has been Acclaimed for the Liberals (#48 on slate of 58).

Sept 10th:  Mount Lorne Update - Colleen Wirth Acclaimed for Liberals (#45 on slate of 58).


Relect the Yukon PartySept 9th:  The Election Date is set.  My prediction was not wrong.  Dennis Fentie's judgement & decision was wrong, imho.  It is only five days after Todd Hardy comes home.  Only nine days before the Municipal Elections.  He said he wanted a Fall Sitting.  He said he'd consider the NDP misfortune.  Why did he bother going to St Paul's Hospital?  He stated that he had unfinished business.  He had until Nov 6th.  And the media was praising his compassion.  So WHY did he go early?  Something dark is happening that changed all the Premier's plans and options.  The implosion has begun...

This YP pic with Fentie surrounded by young women may have alotta irony shortly.  The rumour mill (SignGate) is red hot folks and it ain't pretty...

Let's compare.  Email us.


Sept 8th:  He took the poison pill.  Yukon General Election on Tuesday, Oct 10th ... announced at the joint Chambers luncheon!   It is likely that Todd Hardy returns home Oct 5th.  And i have more news.  With much encouragement from TrendLiners and local residents and business owners, i have decided to seek the MLA position in Kluane ... as an Independent Candidate.  My website is www.Hutter.ca & i'm getting a press release ready to send out.  Back in a while with new Declarations as i receive them.

ok, here's a couple.  W~h West Update - Rhoda Merkel - Declared for NDP.  Klondike Update - Steve Nordick - Declared for YP (#44 on slate of 58).


Sept 7th:  A few words about climate change.  The Yukon Party is being challenged for its modest approach and attainable goals.  It is a practical outline frankly mirroring the Federal Conservative direction.  But we are seeing a major polarization of views with the Liberals, NDP, Conservation Society & Northern Climate Exchange on the opposing turf.  And what is their plan, u might ask?  Simple.  In a word, "Kyoto" ... send a cheque to Russia:  $7-Billion - to buy carbon credits.  That's the plan, folks.  Take seven billion dollars out of social programs and nat'l debt repayment and send it to Russia.

The real sad part is that most Canadians and Yukoners have not been told the whole story about the Kyoto Protocol.  Canada's emissions are insignificant in the big picture 'cuz India and China are not aboard.  But, should all the Kyoto members live up to their emission promises - and that's almost impossible - then all the disgusting scare stories pumped out each week by the Northern Climate Exchange (rising ocean levels, rising temp's, more hurricanes, more earthquakes, etc etc) are only delayed by seven years.  That's right.  2107 all those calamities peak ... instead of 2100AD.  Seven years.  Seven billion dollars.  Is it worth it?  Of course not.  These misguided proponents of Kyoto don't read the science literature.  Or ignore it.  It's sexy to say one supports reducing greenhouse gases.  Quite another to understand it.  Thru the UN, the IPCC scientiss do a major report on "the state of the climate" every four years or so.  Fortunately the next is due January 2007.  It is called "AR4".  Hopefully it will dispel the alarmism spread by gloom merchants like the Northern Climate Exchange.  Knowledge, perspective, timelines and mitigation for that which is inevitable is the best strategy in dealing with climate change.

Next time u are talking to someone from the NCE, Conservation Society, NDP or Liberals ... ask them to relate "their" plan, its cost and timeline and the beneficial effects to Yukoners or Canadians or globally that will be derived.  This is all about smoke & mirrors.  Get a Reality Check.  They have no plan.  And dick all will change.  At least the Yukon Party is admitting it and being honest with y'all.


Sept 6th:  My partner says Communism is alive and well in Canada.  Evalina remarked the other day that the profile of Jack Layton is uncanny its resemblance to old posters of Lenin.  So it was timely that we received this snippet of the Resolutions being proposed at the NDP Federal convention this weekend.  Thanx to Elaine Kennedy for this Stephen Taylor Blog segment:

NDP proposes to nationalize...

Found in the NDP draft policy document (section 5):

WHEREAS Canada's primary resource industries such as forestry, mining, and fishing are vital to economic development and job creation, especially in smaller communities; and
WHEREAS many of these industries continue to be controlled by small groupings of powerful shareholders who seek profits and power over and above the interests of citizens, workers and the environment; and
WHEREAS these industries, under private ownership, threaten smaller communities with de-investment and capital flight,
THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that a NDP government socialize all major primary resource industries in Canada over a period of several years through the payment of low-interest, long-term bonds; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that a NDP government place all new public enterprises under democratic control by their workers, instituting direct election of plant managers and enterprise directors, with the right of recall by their electors, and have significant and meaningful participation in decision-making by consumers, environmental groups and local communities;

OAKVILLE NDP

Not only does the NDP association of the tiny bedroom community of Oakville propose nationalizing our primary resource industry, the Trinity-Spadina and Durham NDP propose nationalizing... almost everything else:

WHEREAS large corporations and financial institutions are undemocratic and hierarchical, seeking profits and power over and above the interests of citizens and the environment; and
WHEREAS social ownership is a necessary precondition for democratic control of the economy, full employment and an equitable distribution of income and power; and
WHEREAS workers' control would contribute greatly to economic justice, greater efficiencies, and most importantly, improve the quality of life of working people and our allies,
THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that the NDP is committed to actively campaign for and implement social ownership, including but not limited to the following industries: banking, communications, energy, health care, insurance, manufacturing, mass media, medical drugs, natural resources, transportation; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that these industries be democratically controlled and managed by their workers, by instituting direct election of plant managers and enterprise directors, with the right of recall by their electors, and integrate significant and meaningful consumer participation in the decision-making process.

TRINITY-SPADINA NDP
DURHAM NDP

The Durham NDP also proposes nationalizing the phone and cable companies!

THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that a NDP government place the telecommunications industry (including phone and cable companies) under social ownership through the payment to the former owners of low-interest, long-term bonds over a period of several years; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the new publicly owned industries be democratically controlled by their workers, instituting direct election of managers and enterprise directors, with the right of recall by their electors, and have significant and meaningful consumer and community participation in the decision-making process.

Sept 5th:  Hearing that Art Mitchell is about to make the first major speech of his political career to local business owners next week (Sept 12), in pre-emptive fashion the Premier has requested a joint luncheon of the W~h & Yukon Chambers of Commerce for Friday Sept 8th.  For those expecting an Announcement that differs from TrendLines target, the available Election Days remaining to Dennis Fentie are Oct 9/16/23/30.  Caveat: Oct 9/16/23 are poison pills for the reasons discussed yesterday... but then, this is the crack strategy team that postponed the Copperbelt By-Election long enuf to: (1) keep Mitchell from more than a few token days in the Leg' & (2) piss off almost everyone in the Yukon with another show of arrogance and political opportunism.


Sept 4th:  So much to do and the hourglass is fleeting.  He wants a quickie Sitting to pass some stuff before "oh oh" happens but not enuf votes.  Almost a year ago, we surmised that unless the Premier & his Yukon Party would take some good advice and turn around their tarnished image, their upcoming Lame Duck status would find them beholden to supporters and Party Donators if a second mandate was not at hand.  Well.  We further outlined the unsavoury character of some in Fentie's inner circle and the demands that would surface.  All has come to pass.  And now Dennis Fentie is finding himself behind the proverbial rock and a hard place.  He has said repeatedly in the past few weeks that he and his Party have "unfinished business" that demands the call of an Autumn Sitting before the Election.  But he mishandled the Edzerza situation this Summer and lost an MLA.  There is much "accommodative" legislation that he'd like to pass for his friends of the Party.  But now with a 9-4-3-2 Leg profile, one that includes a YP Speaker, he faces a 8 to 9 votes on any proposed legislation or regulations.  Naturally anything "for the good of the Yukon" will pass.  But any motions that are perceived to be primarily "for the good of the Yukon Party" are indeed dead in the water...

So why not go early and pass the stuff after the Election?  Two reasons come to mind.  The unfortunate NDP leadership misfortune and the fact that our polls show the YP poised to win only five Ridings in 2006.  Fentie has taken our advice and cancelled his plans for a September Election.  He agrees that in the Yukon undue aggression is a fault and that to not allow Hardy a reasonable period of convalescence would have been fatal to the Yukon Party.  Perceived as opportunist, the Party could have been blown away and come out of a September Election w/o a single MLA.  The electorate can be unforgiving.  Just ask Pat Duncan, Jean Charest, Joy MacPhail and other recent political survivalists.  Most Lame Duck Govt's pass alotta ideological stuff in their final days.  The Yukon Party can't 'cuz it's been reduced to Minority status.  Yet it can't wait for the post-election opportunity 'cuz there may be none.  Since its inauguration in August 2005, the TrendLines Leg' Projection has been forecasting that the Yukon Party will win only 4 to 6 Ridings Dennis Fentie has become the poster boy for Lame Duck Govt's in Canada.  All those promises, scrip's and favours to honour and no way to make good...

What sucks even worse for Fentie is that upon being relegated to Opposition status, he loses his free "get out of jail" card.  Sorry about the pun.  Yes, as Premier, Dennis applied for and was granted a special diplomatic "green" visa to travel to the USA about nine months after the 2002 Election.  American border guards don't recognize Canadian pardons for ex-con's.  The "pass" is renewed annually.  After the 2006 Election ... guess what?!!

There we have it.  Two scenarios.  (1) a quickie Sitting starting Oct 2nd ... but Minority status;  (2) wait 'til after Election ... but not likely in governance any longer;  And a third actually:  (3) forgeddabout everything u've been telling the media all summer wrt one more Sitting and look like an idiot ... and que sera sera.


Sept 3rd:  They say copying is the sincerest form of flattery. And in that case i should be complimented to death with all the paraphrasing and outright plagiarizing of our daily Blog by The Yukon News (TYN) since the Spring ... especially their editorials.  I guess it's hard to get good help these days.  Now the W~h Star has joined in.  CBC & CHON are often at it as well.  All w/o credit of the source - TrendLines.

With that background, it was with some amusement that last week we fielded a call from TYN accusing us of using one of their photo's.  They say it's the one with Fentie wearing glasses.  This pic was sent to us by a TrendLiner that found our regular photo's of Fentie & Hardy "too happy".  Most here know that we credit pretty well all photo's and graphics that are sent in each week.  Unfortunately this one had none of the imbedded tracing code standardly used by media outlets which identifies the photographer, camera model, date and the location.  Thus, we are reluctant to delete it based solely on a phone call (and their refusal to identify the photographer).  I think most viewers will agree that the photo quality is so bad, it is likely the pic was doctored by the sender.  And oops ... there goes the copyright!

Those who know me would say that for the most part i am rather non-adversarial.  This is a silly issue to draw a line in the sand over, but this is the same TYN that Front Paged me and misquoted our Blog in October 2005, refused retractions and clarifications ... and well, the rest is history.  No doubt this is again related to our approaching both the first year anniversary of our site and the 100,000 server hits threshold.  Blogs originally were the source of objective news.  Today they make the news.  Election sites, political junkies, investors and stakeholders from seven foreign nations and across Canada regularly monitor our site currently.

Open Response To TYN:  Please send to us your png/jpg file and the name of the photographer and we'll compare it to the one that we received.  And btw, please direct Graeme McElheran and Richard Mostyn to commence crediting TrendLines in their plagiarized/paraphrased articles and editorials ... or halt the practice.


Sept 2nd:  Sorry, but there was no August Yukon Political Update due to our relocation to the Junction.  And it looked grim for another.  But, TrendLiners are the beneficiary of my prediction three weeks ago that there would no longer be an Election in September.  It allows us to commence today a September Update to our rolling polls.  Again this month, the Subscribers will have the exclusive viewing of results in Real Time at theYUKON.tv SubscriberVenue.  The three Ridings that have full candidate slates will be first; and we'll add each Riding that attains that status over the next few weeks.  The TrendLines Leg' Projection will be updated to reflect lead changes within the 18 Ridings as they are revealed; as will be Sept's "Premier-in-Waiting."  These new graphs et al will be exclusively publicly released here at theYUKON.tv FreeVenue on Writ Day (Oct 6th).  A full Media Release will be made five days prior to Election Day (Nov 6th).

Caveat:  an "October Yukon Political Update" will be pre-empted should i decide to seek political office myself (in Kluane).  Evalina and i have wrestled with this turn of events (see Aug5th Blog) over the past weeks and have considered some alternative measures.  We even made an open plea for the Parties to kick in some $ being as they monopolize the daily server hits ... but alas they only came up with $130 (we won't turn down late pledges!) between them.  Perhaps it is because we are presently forecasting the defeat of 8 Incumbents and the Gov't ... with only 65 days to go!  We saw an 8% swing in Bagnell's support in our polling of the Federal Yukon Riding in January 2006.  And a 19% swing of support in Art Mitchell's Copperbelt ByElection polling.  We would dearly luv to do a mid-campaign poll in October to track how each of the 57 candidates performs in the heat of battle and under the momentum of the larger Territorial campaigns.

Sign wars, media profiles, meet-the-candidate performances and the odd scandal will mar our September numbers, no doubt.  But with DataPath's disastrous call on 8 of 18 Ridings (and 2 "too close to call") in 2002 in the week before, we are certain and confident that even our "September" calls will redefine Yukoners' expectations of accuracy.  If i don't beat the Donna Larsen record (8 of 18 correct a week before the Election) and correctly call at least 9 Riding winning Parties in our Sept Update ... say goodbye to the pony tail !!

W~h Star, Oct 29 2002 ... Re:  Nov 4th Gen'l Election

"However, Larsen cautions that these figures are tempered by the fact that there are still 37 per cent of voters who are undecided. She said that figure is a combination of all people surveyed. If the figures were just for this past weekend, a more up-to-date snapshot, the undecided would be around 30 per cent, she added.  Larsen noted that much undecided is unusually high this late in a campaign. She has spoken with some pollsters from Outside, that have confirmed it is a high number.  The margin of error for the overall survey is plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. In doing the survey, Larsen asked respondents who they would they vote for.  Larsen also gave a breakdown for each riding. She would not give a specific percentage for each candidate because in some cases, the number of decided voters was very small. The margin of error for the ridings was 13 per cent.  She said 12 ridings appear to have a clear leader, while six others were too close to call. She deemed any vote within the margin of error to be too close.

Of all three leaders, the only one who is not ahead, according to Larsen's poll, is Premier Pat Duncan in Porter Creek South.  She said that riding is too close to call with, according to her figures, Yukon Party candidate Lynn Ogden ahead by about 10 per cent.
The rest of the ridings' leaders appear as follows:
Copperbelt – too close to call, but she said it is leaning
Liberal with the NDP close behind;
Klondike –
Yukon Party (Peter Jenkins) ahead but New Democrat Lisa Hutton is within the margin of error;
Kluane –
NDP (Gary McRobb);
Lake Laberge –
Yukon Party (Brad Cathers);
Mayo-Tatchun –
Liberal (Pat Van Bibber);
McIntrye-Takhini –
too close to call with a three-way split that has the Liberals, New Democrats and Yukon Party within three per cent of each other and independent Wayne Jim not far behind, within the margin of error;
Mount Lorne – too close to call, with
Liberal Cynthia Tucker slightly ahead of New Democrat Steve Cardiff;
Pelly-Nisutin –
Yukon Party (Dean Hassard);
Porter Creek Centre –
Liberal (Scott Kent);
Porter Creek North –
Liberal Dave Austin in the lead, with the NDP's Mark Bowers at the top end of the margin of error;
Riverdale North –
Yukon Party's Ted Staffen is leading with both Liberal Dale Eftoda and New Democrat Jan Slipetz 13 per cent behind;
Riverdale South –
Liberal (Sue Edelman);
Southern Lakes – too close to call, with the
Yukon Party's Patrick Rouble slightly ahead;
Vuntut Gwitchin –
too close to call;
Watson Lake –
Yukon Party (Dennis Fentie);
Whitehorse Centre – the
NDP's Todd Hardy is leading with both Bernie Phillips and Mike McLarnon close to being in the margin of error;
Whitehorse West –
Liberal (Dennis Schneider)."

Seriously, if there are any compassionate souls out there in web land that would like to fund part or all of an October Update (if i'm campaigning), please contact us.  Our monthly surveys cost $1500.  Yesterday we saw the Premier spinning poll results from DataPath to make it look like he's winning.  However, TrendLiners know that he is only poised to win five Ridings.  And so does Dennis Fentie.  Don't let perception become reality.  Yukoners have told us that they want CHANGE.


Sept 1st:  At any time from today Premier Dennis Fentie could be unconventionally pre-announcing that he will drop the writ on Oct 6th for a Monday Nov 6th Gen'l Election.  This may be preceded by his calling (on or before Sept 15th) MLA's back for a four-day Autumn Sitting commencing Oct 2nd for what he alludes to in all recent media opportunities as "unfinished business".  While Mr Fentie often mentions a Nov 4th "deadline date", TrendLiners will remember from our more accurate Aug 12th Blog that the actual ceasing of the present mandate is Nov 11th ... seven days after the Election Anniversary and after which all MLA's lose their status and the governance of the Territory reverts to the Commissioner.  The Commissioner must then call an Election in a timely matter so as a reconvening of the Spring Session can occur by May 23 2007.

Caveat:  Today we compare Opinion poll data with the DataPath release.  It is an academic exercise.  TrendLines' national notoriety is based on our Federal Riding Projections.  Similarly, the REAL numbers to watch in the Yukon are those in our Leg' MLA Projection.  Jurisdiction-wide opinion polling is virtually meaningless, as evident by the Liberal's sole Riding win in 2002 while the third place in total votes NDP secured five Ridings.  Our last 7L-5N-5Y-1I projection does not reconcile with either Opinion numbers shown below.  Except at the Riding level, it is folly to base decisions on this ancient type of number crunching.

At left is our Update of today's DataPath Survey (aug1-15).  While it mirrors TrendLines rebound of the Yukon Party, it departs from our results i.e. it seems to have completely missed the rise and fall in the Indep't component that we have been tracking and it fails to note any major fall from grace of the NDP.

The nearest comparison of DataPath's numbers to TrendLines' data is achieved by viewing our own last survey (july29-31) drilled from our 13-wk running poll as quoted in the Aug17th blog below: "Yukon Party 35%,  Liberals 33%, NDP 23% & Independents 9%." This divergence will be exposed by the NDP's poor third place finish on Election Day...


Aug 31st:  Mac-Tak Update - Vicki Durrant seems to have made peace with the YP and has Declared in this Riding withdrawing her intent as an Indie in W~h/Centre.

Aug 30th:  Riverdale North Update - Lesley Cabott - Declared for Liberals (#41 on slate of 57).

Aug 28th:  Mayo-Tatchun Update - Jeanie van Bibber Acclaimed for YP (#40 on slate of 57).

Aug 26th:  Mac-Tak Update - Free Agent and Independent MLA John Edzerza has defeated Rachael Lewis for the NDP Nomination (net #39 on slate of 57).

Aug 25th:  As expected, the September Election has been postponed.  It will be no surprise to TrendLiners that my forecast that Dennis Fentie would fly to Vancouver today to meet with Todd Hardy has come to fruition.  No doubt they are discussing whether the NDP Leader's treatment can be integrated with a later General Election.  Expect a joint Announcement shortly...

Aug 24th:  Dave Hobbis (NDP) has Declared in P/C North (#40 on slate of 57).  Samson Hartland (NDP) has Declared in P/C South.  Hammond Dick (Liberal) has Declared in Pelly-Nisutlin.  Marian Horne has defeated James Smarch for the YP Nomination in this Riding.

Aug 22nd:  Rick Harder (Liberal) has Declared in Watson Lake (#37 on slate of 57).

Aug 18th:  Russ Hobbis has Declared for the YP in Copperbelt (#36 on slate of 57).  Evalina and i should be back online on Tuesday.


Aug 17th:  We're trying to balance the moving to H-J with uploading the graphs of our July Yukon Political Update (in reverse alphabetical order).  Check back often over the next 5 days.  As i review the Update results with some pragmatism, it is likely that Ed Schultz will topple the phantom Indep't and defeat either Edzerza or Rachael Lewis.  Likely the latter.  Subject to any other all-stars surfacing to change the complexion of Riding races, this would present us with an 8-Liberal Leg' Minority with the YP & NDP holding 5 MLA's each.  At this time, Independent Peter Jenkins is the lone Incumbent that has failed to confirm intentions.  All prices subj to change w/o notice.

On a personal note, a debt of gratitude to TrendLiner Matt from Palmerston (Minto Ontario) for compiling his monthly map graphic for us.  Note Mak-Tak is Indep't.

 

July Update:  Leg' Projection (7-5-5-1) reflects this month's two Lead Changes.  The Liberals regained Copperbelt from the phantom Indep't.  Southern Lakes is lost by the YP to the NDP this month.

Liberal Art Mitchell is again Premier-in-Waiting.

July Update:  Aside the massive desire for an Indep't faction, note the utter collapse of Yukon Party support from 2002.  Down 12%.  Albeit they be in first place in sentiment for the first time since September 2005, a loss of 7 Ridings is indicated (Copperbelt, Klondike & McIntyre-Takhini gone already).  Similarly, the NDP & Liberals are down 13% & 7% respectively from their January peak yet both within 3% of their 2002 levels of support.

BTW, when we purge the April-June data and view only the "Riding weighted" sampling data from late July, the Results are:  Yukon Party 35%,  Liberals 33%, NDP 23% & Independents 9% with a 9% Margin of Error and 13% Undecided factor.  This compares to 40/29/27/4 respectively in the 2002 Election.  The eventual destination of remaining Independent sentiment will determine the outcome of this Election.

All 18 July Update Riding graphs:

After a brief scare by a phantom Indep't, TrendLines "Premier-in-Waiting" is back in charge.

Eh, what's this ... a 5-way race ????

Jim Bowers is introduced to "the question".  Last month, the YP led with a phantom.  Bowers is now enhancing that lead.  I like Gary.  It is troubling that i must tell him that he has set a TrendLines record for the lowest ever support level (6%) for an Incumbent (formerly held by Peter Jenkins @ 8%).  The good news is that he wins this month's Red Lantern award.

If he drops out, maybe we should accelerate our relocation to Haines Jct so i can run against Jim. eh.  That's a phantom biting his heels. 

Is it just me, or does anyone else notice that each time Fentie does those awkward public endorsements of Minister Cathers, Brad tumbles another notch?

Mac-Tak's infatuation with a phantom Dipper has run  its course.  It is likely the same fate will befall the phantom Indie.  For the second month in a row, zero votes for Kenn Roberts.

Aside from statements made in the heat of battle, TrendLines is pleased that Ed Schultz continues this quest.  His presence in the Leg' will raise the bar and he is an ideal role model for First Nations youth and young adults in our Territory.

He's a man of few words, but he like the bunny, he just keeps on ticken'... whether he's orange, blue or red.  I don't understand it, but i respect and applaud it.

The NDP's interim Leader doing ok.

Since our poll, Dean has Declared his intentions to run in P/C South.  Does that mean Elvis is now tied for first?

One of two of our "Phoenix" Incumbents!  Please don't pronounce that wrong...

Constituents are still searching for the right fit.  Jim has since Declared.  That may renew constituent interest and commitment.

Lotsa support for our former Premier.  Unfortunately, Pat has since announced that she will not seek Re-election.  Dean Hassard, MLA for Pelly-Nisutlin has recently Declared his intention to seek the YP Nomination in this Riding.

A mere 5% separation awaiting names of the Speaker's opponents...

One of two of our "Phoenix" Incumbents!  Please don't pronounce that wrong...

Ethel Tizya is introduced to "the question".  But she is visibly not a credible candidate.  Liberal support is going over to the NDP.  Barr of Crag Lake again takes the Lead.

Safest NDP Riding in the Territory

Lotsa happy campers here.

Vicki Durrant & Alexia McKinnon are introduced to "the question".  Vicki was the YP flag bearer in 2002 and is presently tied with a phantom Liberal.  With the momentum in play, the NDP Leader is showing vulnerability going into this Election.

Mike Walton is introduced to "the question".  It appears he will be a formidable opponent for the Minister of Tourism.

The July Update of our rolling poll survey is based on responses from 305 Decided voters from April30-July31 2006.  The survey has a 13% Undecided factor with a Margin of Error of 5¼% for the Yukon-wide Party Popular Opinion and an avg 22% for the individual Ridings.  April calls have been purged from Copperbelt & Mayo-Tatchun. * - denotes a Declared but not-yet-Nominated hopeful testing the waters.


Aug 17th:  Prior to clicking the <send> button for an email being sent to Todd Hardy this past week, i was uneasy using the word "fatal" upon re-reading it.  It referenced another issue and no pun was intended.  My fears for his sensitivity were unwarranted.  Yesterday he stated to reporters “My heart and soul are up there and I’m dying to come back!”  It's being said that Todd's treatment will last thru most of the next four weeks and he is quite optimistic about the remission to date and looks forward to be back for campaigning in October.


Aug 16th:  Vive la difference, eh...

   

 

vs                  (TYN photo removed)

 

 

 


Aug 15th:  In Dean Hassard's absence, Marian Horne has Declared for the YP in Pelly-Nisutlin.  Jim Kenyon has declared in P/C North (#35 on slate of 57).  With Duncan's announced withdrawal, this leaves Peter Jenkins of Klondike as the only UnDeclared Incumbent. 

The remaining of our boxes in storage arrived from West Vancouver today by Greyhound.  We'll be in sort&pack mode for awhile, get a cube from Norcan and finish off the relocation to Haines Jct on Discovery Day.  Our first post thereafter will be the July Update graphs with its 2 Riding lead changes and announcement of the Premier-in-Waiting.  With 100 hits a day coming in from the MLA's and their staffers but ony $135 pledged for the August Update, it is unlikely it will happen...


Aug 14th:  Which Dennis will decide if Evalina and i can see Stephen Harper this week?  The one that wants a second mandate ... or ... the one that has listened to Peter Carr's crack Communication Team since i came to the Yukon?  If he continues this pissing contest, i will not get angry... he's gone in 76 days, eh.


Parties Share of Viewership vs Parties Contribution towards Future Polling

(see Aug 13 Blog backgrounder)

Yukon Party Gov't

Combined Opposition

  Yukon News W~h Star CBC North CHON CKRW  

Viewings over last 30 days:

2363 server hits (plus 273 from Watson Lake) 952 server hits   225 hits 82 hits 327 (June)they were cut-off 8 hits 17 hits  

Pledges from Party and/or Party Members:

YP-$65 Liberals-$55 & NDP-$10   fyi fyi fyi fyi fyi  

Aug 13th:  As y'all know i am in discussions with TrendLiners wrt my becoming a participant in Territorial politics rather than just throwing grenades from the cheap seats.  A dilemma that presents itself however is the dedication of time such a decision will require and the ramifications on our Summer/Autumn polling schedule.  We will be releasing the July Update next week, and, as shown in the TimeLine above, we had intended to start our August Update later this month.  Another survey was contemplated in the days just prior to Election Day.  While we treasure our subscribers and other loyal TrendLiners, it is becoming apparent that more and more hits are coming from the Caucus offices of the Yukon Party, the Liberal Party & the NDP;  yet they carry little of the financial load.

Methinx we will pause and reflect before making final decisions, but consider this blog item as an open invitation to the Caucus reps of the three Parties and/or their Territorial Associations to propose some contribution towards the next couple of Updates.  Time will be precious to Evalina and i over these next few months if i jump into the fray.  We will have to make some arrangements to keep the polls going.  While it is unlikely that all three Parties actually want their fates revealed in this open forum, it is felt this the opportunity should be offered to concerned Party faithful and insiders before we pull the plug.  If one of the Parties fails to respond in a material fashion, we'll have a Blog ... but no graphs.  Sorry.  And all of this depends of course on whether i decide to put my name forward as a Candidate.

If there is no consensus between the stakeholders, we will be back eventually and resume with Updates of the Federal & Secession polling this Winter.  But it is felt that those that are using the site in overwhelming numbers should bear more of the burden as opposed to subscribers.  Again, if u can speak to some degree for your Party or want to make a financial pledge yourself, please give us a call or an email asap.  Aug 28th will mark the first Anniversary of our first Yukon Poll and Sept 27th will mark our first Blog entry.  Our TrendLines/theYUKON.tv sites are approaching the 100,000 server hits threshold.  It has been an enjoyable exercise and the many offers of encouragement have been appreciated beyond words...

We now return to regular broadcasting.  The July Yukon Political Update will be released here at the FreeVenue on Monday, Aug 21st.  18 new Riding Graphs plus Leg' MLA Projection & Party Popular Opinion.


Aug 12th:  The Election Call.  Most politicians in Canada have shown compassion in the last two years over stricken peers regardless of Party affiliation.  We have seen this demonstrated in the convention of "pairing".  In the coming weeks we will see the true mettle of the Yukon Party and the Premier.  Do they merely pay homage to this practice or is it genuine?  In what could be gargantuan leap of faith, TrendLines is today amending our long time Election Day Target on the basis that Fentie will exhibit "a softer side".

Just prior to Christmas, we set Sept 25th as our Target.  Our previous date was in October, but we found that this conflicted with the School Elections (Oct 2nd) & the Municipal/LAC Elections (Oct19th).  Assuming the Premier has a compassionate streak and will allow the NDP reasonable time for either Todd's treatment or a snap Leadership Convention, we are setting Nov 6th as our new Target.

As background, the last date that the Premier can drop the Writ is Nov 3rd.  And this results in a December 4th Election.  This combination of dates has two advantages.  It allows failed hopefuls in the Municipal Elections a couple of weeks to contemplate entering the MLA race and it conflicts with the Liberal Federal Leadership Convention.  The Yukon Liberals are presently the YP's arch enemy and with many (36) of their strongest organizers in Ottawa (Dec 1st & 2nd), it could just give the YP that needed edge in some tightly contested Ridings.  In one move Dennis can soften his image with his handling of the NDP Leadership issue and at the same time strike a decisive organizational nightmare at the Liberals.  A move that likely dashes any hopes of a Liberal Majority.  Unfortunately, it also means the Territory has no Governing Party in place.  Their cheques stop on Nov 11th (4 years and seven days after the 2002 Election) and everyone in the Leg' ceases to be an MLA.  We still have YTG and all YTG employees continue to get their cheques.  But the Commissioner is In Charge.  In case of terrorist activity or a natural disaster, it would not be prudent for the Premier to destabilize the Yukon Government regardless of the unfortunate circumstances this week.

For trivia fans, we actually have more time than that.  Under the Yukon Act, the Leg' must be recalled by May 23rd 2007 (365 days after last Sitting day).  Working backwards, a new Gov't would have to give 15 days Notice (May 8th) of that Sitting and could only do that after waiting to be sworn in about two weeks after the return of the writ (April 23rd) seven days after an Election.  Thus, in extenuating circumstances, a Spring Election could be called by the Commissioner on March 16th (writ) for an April 16th Election Day.  Considering a Budget and Cabinet Appointments must be accounted for, these dates are quite inconceivable.  They are drop dead dates only.  Should the Liberals, NDP or Independents have the most MLA's, even more time would be required for preparation of governance.

Should the a Nov 6th Election date be desired, the Premier must drop the writ on October 6th.  However, in light of the NDP Leadership situation and the obvious conflict with the School, Municipal & LAC elections in October, it would be prudent for the Premier to pre-announce the Election Date to soften the intensity of the Campaign.  Nov 6th.  This is a good date for all concerns and the Yukon Party would be lauded.  Todd Hardy will know his status and treatment regime shortly.  Upon release of that info, expect the Premier to assess Todd Hardy's demise and announce that the Sept 25th Election has been postponed in favour of a long election campaign to accommodate his former colleague.  It's Nov 6th - or - the utter thrashing of the Yukon Party by voters.  You heard it here first, eh.


Aug 11th Update:  A big thank you to the TrendLiners that wrestled a positive re-Declaration out of Ed Schultz.  He's back in the race in Mak-Tak after a few days of soul searching.  Jim McCullough of Riverdale North & Nina Sutherland of Lake Laberge have put their names forward for the NDP Nominations.  And Mr Fentie continues to beg for female candidates each time he hits the air waves this week.  Jim Kenyon & Peter Jenkins remain as the only UnDeclared Incumbents as Dean Hassard, Incumbent in Pelly-Nisutlin, has announced that he will run in P/C South in the absence of Pat Duncan.  We now stand at 33 hopefuls of a full slate of 57.  See the standings and full list at our Election Central link above the TimeLine.


Aug 11th:  TrendLines is considering backing off its Aug25th target for the dropping of the Writ.  With Dennis Fentie proposing several times in the last couple of weeks that he is considering an Autumn Session and indeed the collaboration of same by John Edzerza in his admission that part of his sudden departure was his being asked to contribute to discussions surrounding a Supplemental Fall Budget.  In short, until word comes back on Todd Hardy's treatment regime and the potential necessity of an NDP Leadership campaign, it would be extremely distasteful to see the Premier call a snap Election to capitalize on these events.  Dennis Fentie has been perceived as being quite opportunistic during his career.  But to do so at this juncture would make his intentions clear as day.  Would we blame him?  No.  But would their be blowback from the electorate?  In this present environment of extreme cynicism towards political goings on, one has to say the voters would en masse be unkind to the Yukon Party in that eventuality.  The Yukon, like other jurisdictions, has seen a governing Party reduced to a single Riding or two by an inflamed electorate.  This Autumn could be a Repeat of that scale of punishment.  The wrath of voters, augmented by a hostile media, could serve an already perceived "aloof" governing Party its political head on a platter.  Well, actually nine heads...

I don't like backing off my prediction.  I made it in December.  It would be a third feather in TrendLines' cap.  Premier Fentie has gone out of his way on several media fronts getting out the word that we can look forward to an Autumn Sitting; that he and the Yukon Party have unfinished business;  that they want to go on their record;  that they will take the high road.  If he now goes for the jugular, then Yukoners are seeing the rebirth of that ex-con from Edmonton that callously took part in a heroin trafficking ring ... instead of the kindler gentler Yukon Party that all his MLA's talked about last week that is going to look more closely at social issues in its second mandate now that the economy is humming.  Which Dennis Fentie will we see in the coming weeks?  A long time ago, the Federal Penitentiary system awarded Dennis a four year invitation to their facilities.  Yukon voters could hand him a similar four year hiatus (actually five under the Yukon Act) if he shows poor judgement on this issue.  It could be that "straw"; that final "nail".

Which Dennis will show up to handle the Todd Hardy misfortune?

     (TYN photo removed)

Aug 10th:  To clear the air, the NDP has announced this morn that Todd Hardy has health issues but will not be stepping down as Leader.  He is in Vancouver undergoing tests and treatment advice.  Whenever Evalina and i met with Todd, he was courteous and genuine.  He has passion for those issues that interest him.  He is weak with those that don't mix with NDP ideology.  My first invite to sit on a political Advisory Board of Directors was by the NDP.  Let me tell u, on the Federal, Provincial and Territorial scene there are many more wacko's in the NDP that are far worse than Todd in finding a balance between their quest for their social engineering and the pragmatics of governance and sustainable economies.  Jack Layton has done much to bring the NDP to the realities of the 21st Century

In attending their AGM (as observers), it was clear to Evalina and i that Todd is a favourite son.  And Louise and Rachael are favourite daughters.  But Todd must take responsibility for the recent demise.  Only a year ago, he was TrendLines "Premier-in-Waiting.  In January 2006 the NDP had a commanding lead with 37% of popular opinion and 9 Ridings in our Leg' MLA Projection.  The iminent General Election was his to lose.  And he is doing a superb job as illustrated by the recent fall from grace.  Some of his MLA's, the media and the electorate seem to discount him as "Premier Material" or ... the fear the Party of socialist leanings at this particular juncture.  Todd and his shadow cabinet have failed to show a vision of where the NDP would take us should the be awarded the reins of governance.  The Party must surround the Leader with good and capable people.  Like me.  And there are others ... that can present to the electorate an articulate roadmap of what's acomin' in the next four years should we give them a mandate.  Unfortunately that plan (if there is a plan) is enshrouded in mystery.

I don't question at all his decision this Winter to oust McRobb & Fairclough.  His hand was forced.  But the reality of what led to that event must be analysed and changes implemented to learn from that malcontent.  Todd came thru the event relatively unscathed at the Party level.  Unfortunately, there were substantial consequences across the Yukon.  Support left in droves.  I am sure everyone hopes for Todd to do well in his more pressing battle.  But if he wants to retain Leadership, he must have an epiphany of sorts.

Drastic changes are needed in the NDP offices.  New people.  New attitudes.  Or all will be lost.  We are most certainly headed into Minority Gov't in the coming weeks (47 days!?).  To date, Todd Hardy and the NDP (like Art Mitchell and the Liberals) have shown by their lack of presence in the last two Leg' Sessions that they could not organize a slo-pitch tournament ... let alone run the Territory.  That is the perception.  And across the floor, we have the perceived arrogance of Cabinet and their little dictator ... that have a public relations team that even al Qaeda would not want.  Their top down politics stinks.

And there we be.  Yukoners will hit the ballot boxes shortly ... and nobody to vote for.  They will be holding their noses no matter what Party gets the "x".  A sad state of affairs.  All three Parties are seen to be struggling to get quality candidates.  And that's holding up the Election.  It's one of those chicken or egg thingies.  Who in his/her right mind wants aboard this train?  The Yukon political scene needs fresh air and change.  They won't get it with many of the present players.

TrendLines showed in April's Update that 53% of Yukoners would rather vote for a good Indep't candidate than support the traditional Parties.  Cynicism and disgust with the dysfunction at the Leg' reached a Peak at that time.  While it has subsided somewhat with realization that few good men or women are going to come forward to bear that torch, it is latent.  Our polls show many phantom Indies in first or second place.  Like me, many are overwhelmed with the prospect of such a battle.  While the Yukon has had its share of Indies, there is quite a short list of those that gained that status by ballot.  But the failure the Party system over the last several mandates may allow a breakthru in 2006.  And if one or more get in, Election2008 may yield more.  But i digress...

Be strong Todd.  Understand that u have many friends.  Take some time to reflect.  And please come back stronger than ever.  You clearly have much local core Party support.  It is time to grow as Leader or move over.   For the good of the Party.  The other Parties need a worthy adversary to make themselves better.


Aug 8th:  It is with much sadness that Evalina and i received the announcement that past Premier Pat Duncan will not be seeking re-Election.  Her stature, poise and contributions in Leg' are without match; and she has served Yukoners well over many years in many capacities in the political arena.  TrendLines wishes her well in the next chapter of her life...


Aug 5th:  Things are happening at a faster pace on the Nomination front and we are updating the Election Central page daily to reflect new names.  Also, we will be using the time between now and the August Update to relocate and consolidate our offices to Haines Junction from Atlin, Tagish & Judas Creek.

With respect to the me and political aspirations, i have never run for office myself but there is pressure on for me to join in as a participant rather than affect change from my common perch in an advisory Board role or from my soapbox here at TrendLines as a commentator.  I had thought that my relatively short time in the Territory would discount that option but i am certainly being encouraged to do so.  I treasure the many comments we receive from TrendLiners during the year.  If anyone wishes to chat about the pro's & con's of this prospect, please feel free to contact me at 660.5566 or by email.  And much thanx to those that have already voiced their many opinions and strategies.  It is apparent Yukoners want change ... and i would be honoured to assist in shaping its implementation.


Aug 3rd:  Further to yesterday's post, the wildest rumour today is that Edzerza's resignation has foundations in his desire to challenge Rachael Lewis for the NDP nomination.  His crossing the floor to Indep't status has no effect on our Leg' Projections due to his never being in contention for that Riding throughout our year of polling there.   1pm Update:  Confirmed ...Yes, John is running agin Rachael.  To be clear, we have TrendLines habitual Red Lantern winner (lowest of 18 Incumbents) battling the chick who has the worst campaign mgr record in the Territory plus two failed runs herself ... that's four losses in six years and i probably missed some.  Ironically the best loser then takes on Ed Schultz, himself no stranger to coming second ... or third.  The good news is that somebody is going to end the jinx streak, eh.

David Laxton has been Acclaimed for the Liberals in P/C Centre.

Aug 2nd:  Rachael Lewis has Declared for the NDP in Mac-Tak.  At 29 of a potential slate of 58 (54 + 4 Indept's), we are at the half-way mark of candidates' readiness today.

Rachael is a stalwart for the NDP.  She was campaign mgr for the recent Federal Election & the Copperbelt By-Election.  She ran herself albeit unsuccessfully in Riverdale North in Y2K & in Southern Lakes in 2002.  Unfortunately her record precedes her and this presents an awesome opportunity for Ed Schultz to make his mark.  And he has Liberal momentum on his side.  If u see Ed at Superstore, Wal-mart, CrappyTire, anywhere ... ask him to run.  His presence will raise the bar at the Leg' and he makes an awesome role model for the Territory's First Nation youth and young adults.


Aug 1st Final Results of the July Update are at the SubscriberVenue.  With Yukoners likely going to the ballot boxes less than seven weeks, come see the potential winners, losers and who will hold the reins as Premier.  Darius Elias has declared for the Liberals in Vuntut Gwitchin.


July 29thLast chance for July additions!  Evalina starts her calls in an hour and continues 'til Monday nite.  If u or someone u know should be on this month's "question" please call or email us asap, eh.  Our current list is at "Election Central".

July 28th 60 DAYS TO GO!  Patrick Rouble Declared today.  As did Mike Walton for the Liberals in W~h West.  With a Nomination Mtg for the YP quickly scheduled there for this coming Tuesday, we can assume Elaine Taylor has Declared.  We are going into August with only 5 of 18 Incumbents undeclared:  Kenyon, Hassard & Edzerza still undeclared for the YP;  Duncan undeclared for the Liberals;  and Jenkins undeclared as an Indep't.  All the Dippers are assumed declared.  We presently stand with 28 of the full slate of 59.

July 26th:  Last week our public release of the May/June Political Update showed Archie Lang leading for the first time in our Porter Creek polls.  He has been Acclaimed in a local Nomination Mtg.  Speaker Ted Staffen, running 2nd in our polls, also Acclaimed.


July 24th:  One of the first tasks i had upon coming North of 60 involved forensic accounting.  And there have been calls for me to investigate the numbers that have caused passionate discussions wrt to the Territory's financial standing.  It started with the StatCan report in The Daily that the Yukon had an operating deficit of $13-Million.  It was inflamed when the media outlets in the Yukon began publishing ambiguous figures arising out of Peter Carr's Press Release last week on the Territory's Financial Status.

To that end, i went to the top.  I knew what figures to ask for and what documents would have them.  I sent an email to Bruce McLennan with that request and folks ... by 9:25am it was in my Inbox.  And to make a short story long, it's all good news.  In fact, excellent news.  I will share my findings and comments a bit later, but with some of the ugly accusations floating around, i felt it was necessary to quash this rumour at the bud this morn.  StatCan may have some innovative number crunchers, but suffice to say that i am satisfied that management of the Yukon's finances are in good hands.

As mentioned, i will expand on this but for the anxious TrendLiners out there:  we finished 2006 with a surplus of $44.8-Million & the forecasts for 2007 and 2008 are $17.4-Million & $12.7-Million respectively.  Thanx muchly, Mr McLennan.


July 23rd:  I am learning to be less harsh on Yukon personalities.  When i came North of 60, it was rather easy to find fault with many decision making bodies and leadership and i reflected openly in those early days that the North lacks the critical mass for my expectations nurtured Outside.  It was manifested in our very first poll in Klondike.  If u remember, last July we had that novel comment:  "We're voting for Peter.  We know he's an idiot.  But  he's the best we got."  I  don't necessarily agree with her, but in retrospect, i have come to terms with the notion that we have to suffice with what resources are available and that means accepting some foibles.  I expected better.

It does not mean that we should accept status quo.  Nor does it say that we should avoid criticism.  It merely states the obvious, that we should not demand more than that which is at hand.  If we don't have capable human resources, then we should only demand from those who are available that what they are capable of ... whilst not being tolerant of the slothful and procrastinators.

An Election is in the air.  65 days by my count.  Our July Update underway can be seen in real time at the SubscriberVenue.  Here at the FreeVenue, it will be released on Monday Aug 21st ... four days before Premier Fentie's likely press conference to announce his dropping of the writ for the Yukon General Election on Friday Aug 25th.  A cornucopia of wannabees will say they can do a better job but will sit on their hands and won't run.  A myriad of hopefuls will come forward.  We will form a Gov't and an Opposition from the latter camp.  It won't be pretty and it surely won't be perfect.  But it's the best we got.  With that in mind; and with the plethora of difficult decisions ahead during this term of office, we need to elect those that have ambition, self discipline and a willingness to learn.  And the learning curve will be steep.  We don't need experience as an attribute if it comes with the baggage of complacency, cronyism and ego.

When we look at the three Parties and the Indept's that are jockeying for support today and beyond, there are few shining stars.  But we do have the opportunity shortly to create a smorgasbord of personalities that will blend within a political recipe rather than clash.  We have suffered with dysfunctional actors long enuf.  It's time to send in a fresh team... a pox on all their houses!  Our April survey revealed that 53% of Decided voters would rather have a hard working Independent than a rep from the traditional Parties.  Without condoning consensus gov't, the message is clear:  Yukoner want and deserve better.


July 22nd:  CBC's fear of being taken off the air by the Conservative Gov't is becoming so intense that they seem to be doing everything in their power to make their adversaries look like they are botching the Lebanon evacuation.  Whilst on site correspondents were reporting that the first ship was half way to Cyprus, CBC was displaying their all-nation graphic scoreboard with Canada at zero compared to other countries on rescue operations of their nationals.  Hmm.  Next day ... CBC had no graphic.  Today ... no CBC graphic.  Hmmm.  They (CBC) keep saying we're the worst of all nations in the Evacuation Race, but no stats.  Hmmm.  TrendLines checked it out this morning:  Y'all can see how each country is doing for its citizens here & here.  While others are still scrambling with buses and copters, Canada is confidently moving 2,000/day with its chartered fleet of six ships.  Is anyone else uncomfortable with the way CBC is allowing its bureaus to freelance their personal agendas lately?  Northbeat, Vancouver & Ottawa are having smell test issues, eh.  Be careful boys and girls or y'all may be joining Carol Morin in a time-out for "attitude adjustment" and reverse sensitivity training.  It would be in Canadian's best interest if submissions were made to the CRTC & Combines Investigations Tribunal to have CTV consider purchasing CBC and leave City-TV & CHUM in the marketplace.  There is no longer a mandate for a publicly owned broadcaster given the present flavours-of-the-month environment.  Sorry, but i digress...

In the meantime we've witnessed a few real gems from some of the ungrateful Lebanese:  "Canada is letting my country be destroyed" & "Hezbollah will save me ... just leave us alone" & "why don't the rescue ships have air conditioning?"   Hmm, some more.  We took these folks in as refugees the first time.  But some of 'em don't deserve a second crack of Cndn sympathy and need a means check as to their true loyalties and allegiance.  I'm seeing alotta frustrated ingrates and whiners over there.  For the benefit of the bleeding hearts out there, Hezbollah has been launching about 30 rocket-powered grenades an hour over northern Israeli settlements.  Israel has in turn made if clear that for each rocket and death, the favour is returned ten fold.  The Lebanese are slow learners when it comes to controlling their own destiny.

Is this starting to sound familiar?  Another conspiracy of silence protecting those evil forces among them ... a là muslim extremists within our mosques and repeat violent offenders among First Nations.  In southern Lebanon, the civilian casualties are very great 'cuz the rocket launches are for the most part striking from within residential neighbourhoods.  In Afghanistan, folks move out when the bad guyz move in.  In Lebanon, they are shielded by sympathizers.  There are many dynamics in play in these types of situations around the world.  Sometimes the dark side moves in and rules by fear and intimidation.  But too often, there is an incestuous relationship (figuratively speaking) between the criminal element and their neighbours.  Here we can speak out ... like at the Capitol Hotel and there are few repercussions.  In some places, u or your family can be slain the next day.  And the outspoken educated can be the first to go...

BTW, i applaud the escalation to vigilante tactics taken this week against drug sponsored element in W~h.  Last Autumn, i mused that the Inuvik method was superior to laying low when local police and political leadership treat that activity with low priority.  This is a small jurisdiction and we all know who is doing what.  Everybody.  The snail paced implementation of Todd Hardy's inspired Safer Communities legislation illustrates that the YP does not walk the talk.  Again, we have to ask what is inherent within that political Party that prevents them from sanctions against the drug element?

We're 66 days from a likely Election and the Party leaders are bankrupt of ideas when it comes to addressing common crime.  There is no discussion.  Zilch.  Fentie says "it is a Federal matter" and dismisses it.  Like all other issues, Mitchell is silent 'cuz he doesn't want to say anything wrong or make mistakes at this juncture.  "The election is his to lose" and all that ... phenomenon.  And then there's Hardy.  Poor Todd.  Lots of ideas.  Some good ones.  But lacking of good people around him to provide momentum and follow thru.  He is presently more concerned about image and grandstanding than providing leadership by action.

A case in point is the newest tribute received this week for my infamous "wall of fame."  Last month the Johns-Boucher murder trial inspired me to rant about sanctioned violent crime within the First Nations' villages.  I pulled no punches and i backed up each point with 2006 released statistics.  It obviously bothers me that FN women and children and other good people are victimized week after week in the Yukon w/o reprisal.  Instead of safer communities and victim protection, resources are directed to the healing and welfare of the perpetrators.

And leftist elements within CBC-North condones that abhorrent activity by attempting to quell discussion by juvenile debating techniques such as screaming "racism" (for seven minutes) where none exists.  Since our exposé of Trisha Estabrooks apparent complicity with our arch rivals within the Yukon Party, TrendLiners have been guessing at her motives.  And while she seems to be a willing participant within a YP based attack on TrendLines, many are saying the foundations of her misguided actions were moreso based on socialist influence and leanings within her personal life.

If one likes conspiracy theories, this drama has it all.  Was Trisha Estabrooks's ultimate objective to have this backfire on the YP after all was said and done?  To her credit, was TrendLines a mere feint and Ron Gartshore a mere pawn in her ultimate manoeuvring to discredit the YP?  As alluded, many say she is a not-so-closeted NDP supporter (Dipper).  One of our TrendLiners that was disgusted with her open "racist" accusation advised us that her father is an NDP MLA back East.  And CYFN's Andy Carvill is said to have been openly wanting to represent the NDP prior to his election as Grand Chief.

It is now being said that indeed it is CBC-North that has racist motivations.  There is a growing camp in CBC-North that is steeped in a "hate whitie" mentality and propaganda campaign.  Another dirty little Yukon secret that nobody talks about...

By stifling discussion, the polarization is allowed to fester.  And Todd Hardy may have been hijacked by that element.  Or is behind it?  That brings me to my recent luv letter from Todd.  Is this a letter of chastisement based on an assault on his tender morals.  No.  Look at the courtesy copies below his signature:  this letter is a mere vehicle for his grandstanding in front of CBC-NORTH and CYFN.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.

It is again a missed opportunity for the wannabee Premier.  Rather than take the substance of my content and run with it as a potential plank in his upcoming Election platform, he attacks the messenger...

Where have we seen that before?

And btw, why do those that are easily offended come to politically incorrect blogs anyway??


July 21st:  I'm speechless.  See the grey on the map?  For the first time in our year of polling Yukoners, the TrendLines Update includes Ridings with "Indept's" leading.  2 of 'em and they're both phantoms.  And u won't believe who one of the Incumbents is that is poised for defeat!  Scroll down to Copperbelt. 

And we have another first.  Dennis Fentie and the Yukon Party are poised for a second mandate after trailing either the NDP or Liberals in our Leg' MLA Projection since its initiation last Summer: 6-6-4-2 (and convention says tie goes to the governing party).  All that talk about imminent Regime Change?  Well, take out the "imminent"!

Drilling down thru our data, the rise of an Independent faction has hurt the Liberals and especially the NDP.

24 of the 59 General Election candidates are Assumed Declared or testing the waters.  This growing slate has had a dramatic effect on our 18 Riding Projections and the Leg' Seat Projection:

 8 Lead Changes in the Ridings and the Yukon Party tied for the overall lead.

Scrolling below, we see among other revelations, that a phantom Yukon Party candidate is poised to win Kluane.  A phantom Indep't is poised to defeat Liberal Leader Art Mitchell;  Another is leading in Mac-Tak.  Jon Breen has the slightest of leads over Brad Cathers and phantom Liberals are poised to snatch W~h West from Cabinet Minister Elaine Taylor and Riverdale North from Speaker Ted Staffen.  Note that Cabinet Minister Glenn Hart has taken on phoenix qualities, and Archie too.

The May data also reflects the Liberal recruitment of Eric Fairclough in Mayo-Tatchun.

On a personal note, a debt of gratitude to TrendLiner Matt from Palmerston (Minto Ontario) for catching my arithmetic error while compiling his monthly map graphic for us.

At left is a representation of present Party Popular Opinion status.  The present spread between the traditional three Parties is 0.4%.

It is noteworthy that thru our year of polling, except for Peter Jenkins, no Opposition Incumbent had ever "not" been leading.  June calls reveal that the string has been broken:  Arthur Mitchell has lost the Lead in Copperbelt and Gary McRobb in Kluane.  It is evident that Yukoners are engaged in a "pause and reflect" moment.

Scroll down for our 18 Riding graphs:

 
Well, it had to happen with the momentum that TrendLines has been monitoring this year.  Copperbelt & Mac-Tak have the distinction of being the first two Ridings poised to be won by Indep't Candidates.  Both are phantoms.  Even i am surprised that it has happened in Copperbelt; albeit my reservations have been well documented since the Federal Election.  Liberal leader Art Mitchell seems to be afraid of peaking too early.
Klondikers want two Indep't choices at the moment.
Only a 5% separation!
We introduce Tim Zeigdel to "the question".
Another Indep't Lead.  But it's not Kenn Roberts.  We asked.  Nobody liked him.  Nobody.  And he lost to a phantom.  That's gotta hurt, eh.  This was the first time he was on "the question".
He flew high in Orange, then Aqua ... now he's Red; and doing it again.  Eric Fairclough:  He da Man.
 
 Elvis has "entered" the building
Is that Archie peaking over the riff-raff?  Yup.
Ripe for an Indie?
At TrendLines, we have been vocal fans of PatD since our arrival in the Yukon.  Very glad the haemorrhaging has ended!

Nice while it lasted?
Almost a year ago, he was our reigning Red Lantern MLA.  But touché for Glenn Hart: "Phil Treusch, you should be scared".  The departure of Sue Edelman from our Question has meant only bad news for the Liberals in Riv/South thus far.  It's not that Glenn is a shining star;  more like Peter Lesniak & Phil Treusch seem to suck as opponents in the eyes of their constituents at this juncture.
A Liberal may be announcing candidacy in the next few days.  Could be a repeat 4-way race shaping up.  This is my Riding.  Should i run myself as Indep't ?  Nope, we're in the process of moving to Kluane.  So ... should Gary be afraid? 
No need for an Election in this Riding.  Let's just acclaim Lorraine, eh!
The discontent evident within the Party is non-existent in Premier Fentie's own Riding
The discontent evident within the Party is non-existent in Todd Hardy's own Riding
First a phantom Dipper, now a likewise unknown Liberal challenges Taylor
This May/June Update of our rolling poll survey is based on responses from 319 Decided voters from March20-June29.  The survey has about a 13% Undecided factor with a Margin of Error of 5% for the Yukon-wide Party Popular Opinion and an avg 25% for the individual Ridings.  March calls have been purged from Copperbelt.  Mayo-Tatchun includes June calls only.

July 20th:  From a climate perspective, the 20th of July is the peak of the normal daily highs and daily lows for the Yukon Summer season.  Weather related activity may give us some warmer days or even records, but in general the highs and lows will be dropping 'til the low end of the cycle on January 11th at which time the Winter season commences being warmer with each day again.  FYI.  And in 1969 ... Neil Armstrong walked on the Moon.  Trivia from TrendLines.

July 19th:  It is rumoured that Alexia McKinnon will be the YP flag bearer in W~h Centre, while the 2002 YP Nominee, Vicki Durrant, attempts this time around as an Independent.  Alexia is Special Assistant to Premier Dennis Fentie in the Cabinet Office and daughter of past Yukon Commissioner, Ken McKinnon.  Vicki is Director of the Blue Feather Youth Centre.

July 18th:  With only 70 days 'til the likely Election Day, none of the three Leaders is discussing the issues or a vision of the Yukon's future.  We are using this quiet time to wrap up our house-hunting activities in kluane.  Our July Update starts very shortly. 

July 13th:  On this, the 75th day before our target for the Yukon Election, we have developments with Glenn Hart being Acclaimed in Riverdale South, Jim Bowers winning the YP Nomination race in Kluane and Brad Cathers Acclaimed in Lake Laberge.  This brings us to 23 of a slate of 59.


July 7th:  Land Claims & the setting up Self-Governance is a necessary but overwhelming and expensive task for taxpayers.  The 1998 Agreement in Principle which led to the 1990 Umbrella Agreement provided for $232-Million (over 15yrs) among the 14 Yukon bands along with 25,900 sq km land.

Due to delays, further individual negotiations and inflation, the tally to July 2006 for the Claims has risen to $302-Million for our 6,567 FN residents of the Yukon.  Put another way, that's $45,988 directly/indirectly that has been set aside for the welfare of each man, woman and child via the 11 Settlements thus far.  The first Settlement was with Champagne & Aishihik First Nations in 1995 and there are three to go...

Funding of some infrastructure, hydro, welfare and education of FN citizenry has continued in spite of the Land Claim & Self Gov't obligations.  While many FN bands now collect a myriad of fees for use of their lands, Indian & Northern Affairs Canada (INAC) has an estimated annual budget of $3-Million in the Yukon or $5,000 per FN citizen.

As part of the most recent Land Claim Settlement in Carcross/Tagish FN, residents have been asked to adopt a variation of the Coastal Tlingit clan system for future voting.  Originally a basis for traditional celebrations in avoidance of inbreeding, Chief Mark Wedge has turned it into a political Party system at the local level.  The price tag:  each clan member was promised a designated building lot with a $57,000 Credit toward the construction of a minimum 1050-sqft home.  It is unclear whether the construction Credit is being provided by C/TFN or INAC.

There are an avg of 469 persons in each of the 14 bands.  Administration of the daily operations and management of the Claim Funds is handled via an Admin building in each of those communities with a staff of about 27.  Their average salaries of $1.35-Million per year adds much needed commerce in those villages.  Due to near extermination of the caribou herd, Old Crow has a staff 56 caring for its 300 FN inhabitants; whereas similarly sized Atlin, in the heart of a tourism mecca, manages their affairs with seven staff.  Hmmm.

With the staged Claim payments starting in mid 1995, the four original signed bands will see their cheques stop in mid 2010.  Cheques that avg $200,000/month.  Yet the Claim funds have for the most part been poorly invested or squandered in the creation of false jobs in lieu of welfare.  Like any other jurisdiction, the FN Admin buildings will likely house less than a dozen support staff when reality checks in.  There is very little time to find sustainable employment for those that will be undeniably laid off in the foreseeable future.

If not, the alternative for bands will be to rob capital from their trust accounts thereby living off the principal for several more years rather than its interest.

Which begs the inevitable question.  What happens when all the money is gone?  The Federal Gov't, CYFN & YTG have built a model based on bureaucracy rather than commerce.  Instead of funding the Yukon First Nations as a body or as three distinct groups, they have chosen to create 14 Administrative Empires in 14 villages.  14 wannabee CEO's, CFO's, CAO's & 14 chiefs.  Each for an avg of 469 souls.  What is that they say, many of life's problems stem from "having too many chiefs and not enuf..."

And it gets worse.  In the pre-Umbrella Agreement Days, we had a Minister of Housing; and Ministers of Tourism, Economic Development, Natural Resources, Health, etc in the Yukon.  But now we are on the road to having 15 of 'em.  Yup, one in each village and its 2000 sq km land area.  All making over fifty grand each.  For 469 residents.  The Yukon is headed for an implosion.  One FN band at a time.  As the Land Claims cheques run out after the 15-yr transition period, what will be the alternative revenue stream for each band?

Instead of $200-k/month, most are on a path that will yield less than $20-k/month.  It is foreseeable that most offices within the Admin Buildings will be shuttered.  They will be havens of deferred maintenance.  The administrators may not be able to pay the utilities.

In less than four years, FN kids and grandchildren will rightfully be asking "where did the $302-million go?"  1995-2006:  where did the money go?  beer and popcorn?  What a Liberal legacy...

If u are not FN and there's a nice weekend coming up, jump into your vehicle.  Drive to any of the 14 FN communities.  Look for traces of the $302-Million that is over half spent...

If u are FN yourself, ask to see your band's Financial Statements prior to the next G.A.  And then ask some serious questions when u attend.  Please attend.

If u are a member of FN leadership, ask the Accounting dept of your band to provide a five and ten year pro forma.   A cash flow projection.  It's your road map to your future.  If they can't provide one, call me at TrendLines.

This segment is not meant to alarm or to criticize.  It is a red flag of much danger ahead that can be averted by reasonable choices and co-operation between bands in the near future.  There is much too much duplication in our Territory.  FN's must consider a sharing of personnel and resources for future management.


July 6th:  I really like the new skinny blonde chick at CBC-North.  Odile Nelson did a timely feature on the proposed unsightly homes & yards legislation tonite.  Carol the Lardo was conspicuous with her absence.  But how come they didn't show Doris Bill's W~h property in the segment?  Our pic's would have been quite apropos, n'est pas?


Blog & graph archive at TrendLines website (Sept/2005 to April/2006) & (May/2006 to June/2006) [Under Construction]

 Copyright 1989-2006 ~ the contents of this site are protected by copyright and reproduction of the graphs or content is prohibited w/o the express consent of TrendLines or theYUKONtv.  We ask that other Yukon media outlets please respect this and feel free to contact us via 634.2266 or graphs@TrendLines.ca 


(©2006 )