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Marsh Lake Record Water Levels

Aug 20 2008:


Judas Creek Marina (Aug 7 2007 + Updates) - Freddy Hutter of TrendLines Research provides TheYukonTV with this regional Exclusive:

On July 31st 2007, YTG Officials originally called for Marsh Lake to crest and commence receding on Aug 2nd.  This was followed by the infamous daily calls of a declared peak.  They were wrong by 18 days and 8.6cm.  Upon cresting, YTG Officials again defied historic norms and weather realities and released graphs inferring that remedial work could begin Oct 1st.  This was based on a 25mm/day recession rate albeit conditions persisted that indicated a 15mm/day rate was in play.  TrendLines Research is confident that again, YTG Officials will likely be wrong by 23 days and 40cm.  Welcome to our Marsh Lake Freshet Analysis and enjoy the charts!  p.s. - with receding waters in pattern, our future updates will henceforth be issued weekly rather than daily...

Nov 6  2007:  Who stopped the discharge?  Will remedial repairs have to wait 'til Spring?

Oct 13  2007:  The Lake has dropped 20mm/day, 2cm/day or 0.8inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down two full metres on Nov 13th based on target date analysis by TrendLines Research;  and down 3 full metres by December 17th 2007;  The 2008 freshet will commence on May 10 2008.  As of Oct 8, YTG Officials presently estimate that the waters will not recede 2m until February and YTG has not offered an estimate on the 3m threshold.  Their best efforts forecast is the  black line on our chart below.

Oct 9  2007:  At 1am this morning, the water level was down exactly 1 metre from the Aug 20 re-crest of the 2007 freshet (2.988m on chart).  Pretty good, eh!

Oct 3  2007:  The Lake has dropped 19mm/day, 1.9cm/day or 0.75inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre near Oct 11th based on target date analysis by TrendLines Research;  and down 2 full metres by December 1st 2007;  and down 3 metres from the 2007 crest by January 15th 2008.  The 2008 freshet will commence on May 10 2008.  As of Oct 8, YTG Officials presently estimate that the waters will not recede two metres until February and they have no estimate for stakeholders wrt the 3-metre threshold. 

This profile can be altered dramatically by YTG's tampering with outflows downstream of Marsh Lake.  By our analysis of temperatures and precipitation in 1981, it certainly appears that the record levels in 1981 were caused by such actions.

Below is TrendLines baseline study of the 2007 recession profile.  Similar to the 3-stage baselines of the cresting advance, there will be a series of baselines on the downslope as well.   Note by the Oct 4th comparative graph that the threshold dates have been advanced with the change in recession rate from 16mm/day in Aug & early Sept to a more aggressive 24mm/day:

Monday Sept 24th 5am:  Water Level is down 15mm (1.5cm) over last 24hrs;  and down 48mm (4.8cm) over the last 48hrs.  Present Level is lower by a total 579mm (5.79cm/23.1") to 3.409m on the Chart over 35 days.  During the course of this analysis, our updates have transitioned from three times per day to daily.  With receding waters in pattern, our future updates will henceforth be  issued weekly...

~~~ The Lake has dropped 17mm/day, 1.7cm/day or 0.6inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre on Oct 14th based on target date analysis by TrendLines Research;  and down 2 full metres by December 13 2007;  and down 3 metres from the 2007 crest by February 6 2008.  The 2008 freshet will commence on May 10 2008.  YTG Officials presently estimate that the waters will not recede a full metre until Nov 6th.   Below is TrendLines baseline study of the 2007 recession.  Similar to the 3-stage baselines of the cresting advance, there will likely be a series of baselines on the downslope as well:


Sept 23 2007 ~ The Lake has dropped 17mm/day, 1.7cm/day or 0.6inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre on Oct 19th based on target date analysis by TrendLines Research;  and down 2 full metres by December 21 2007;  and down 3 metres from 2007 crest by February 21 2008 ~

Sept 21 2007 ~ The Lake has dropped 16mm/day, 1.6cm/day or 0.6inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre on Oct 21st based on target date analysis by TrendLines Research;  and down 2 full metres by February 21 2008;  and down 3 metres from 2007 crest by March 21 2008.  The 2008 freshet will commence on May 10 2008 ~

Sept 18 2007 ~ The Lake has dropped 15mm/day, 1.5cm/day or 0.6inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre on Oct 22nd based on analysis by TrendLines Research.  Our target date for remedial work requiring water levels to be down two full metres is initiated today as March 21st 2008.  YTG's long term outlook set yesterday forecasts levels to be down 1.3m from the crest by Jan 3rd 2008.  Remedial work requiring water levels 3 metres lower than the 2007 crest must wait until April 20 2008, but caution is required as the waters will most probably recommence rising 21 days later on May 10th 2008 ~

Sept 17 2007 ~ The Lake has dropped 15mm/day, 1.5cm/day or 0.6inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre on Oct 22nd based on analysis by TrendLines Research BREAKING NEWS:  YTG released a new graph today further postponing their target date for this threshold from Oct 20 (set Sept 11)  to Nov 6th.

Sept 15 2007 ~ The Lake has dropped 15mm/day, 1.5cm/day or 0.6inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre on Oct 22nd based on analysis by TrendLines Research ~

Sept 14 2007 ~ The Lake has dropped 15mm/day, 1.5cm/day or 0.6inch/day since the re-crest on Aug 20th and will be down one full metre on Oct 23rd based on analysis by TrendLines Research.  A major storm will hit SW Yukon over the weekend dumping as much as 2" (50mm) rain.  Most of this is beyond the Marsh Lake watershed but cumulative precip will likely produce a significant anomaly in the recession advance before returning to the chart's baseline in about seven days ~

Sept 12 2007 ~ The Lake is dropping 16mm/day, 1.6cm/day or 0.6inch/day and will be down one full metre on Oct 22nd ~

Sept 11 2007 ~ The Lake is dropping 15mm/day, 1.5cm/day or 0.6inch/day and will be down one full metre on Oct 23rd ... not YTG's Oct 1st estimate ~  BREAKING NEWS:  YTG has broken with its stubborn estimate (set Aug 16) that the lake will be down one metre by Oct 1st.  A new YTG graph released today moves this critical date to Oct 20th.  This concurs with TrendLines Research steadfast position over the past two weeks that the waters would not recede to this threshold before Oct 21st.  This update chart should show that receding waters are on course for that date vicinity:

 Use Internet Explorer 7's new Zoom tool at the bottom right of your browser screen or <Control +> to magnify & <Control -> to reduce.


~~~ Latest Marsh Lake water level RECORD:  2007/Aug 14th - Tuesday 1pm & tied Aug 19th - Sunday 10pm & again Aug 20th - Monday 10pm:

2007: Aug14/19/20:  653.357 base + 3.988 = 657.345 metres GSCD (35.3cm/14" over '81)

1981 Sep15:  653.357 base + 3.635 = 656.992 metres GSCD

2004 Aug28:  653.357 base + 3.432 = 656.789 metres GSCD


Marsh Lake rose 1metre from June 30th to Aug14th.  On Aug 20th, the waters began to recede.  YTG originally predicted that the dikes would have relief on Aug 2nd.  Will YTG be similarly wrong about how long 'til the waters are down a full metre to begin remedial work on septic/holding tanks, weeping beds, water systems, docks & foundations?

YTG has been consistent since mid August that Marsh Lake will recede one metre (3cm/day) from its freshet re-crest by Oct 1st.  However, with waters receding at only the rate of 1.7cm/day due to increased rainfall in 2007, TrendLines Research has been forecasting since Aug 31st that remedial work requiring the waters to be down by one metre will not be able to proceed 'til at least Oct 21st:   


The 1981 freshet crest set a subsequent (and Record) high on Sept15th.  Did YTG and/or Yukon Energy manipulation of discharge flows reverse the receding waters?  How did the crest miraculously rise 10" (24cm) w/o assistance from rain, high temp's or regional forest fires?

proxy

The latest six-decade Record High Water Level was marked at 1pm Tuesday August 14th 2007, retouched Aug 19th & again Aug 20th.  Marsh Lake surpassed the previous 1981 Mark by 14 inches/35cm & the 2004 Mark by 22in/56cm.

At this latter stage of the freshet, the daily weather blog has been discontinued ...


About Crests of Freshets - Consider that the recent near record 2004 crest was not set until August 28th.  Back in 1981 the waters set a then Record High Crest Aug 15th, fell 12cm (5") over the next three weeks and came back with a vengeful 24cm (10") to set an all-time Record Peak High on Sept 16th of that year.  Over six decades of record keeping, the freshet crest is usually Aug 23rd.

During August the 2007 crest has advanced along a baseline of 3mm/day.  This is a lesser rate than the normal post surge Crest Creep rate of 7mm/day.  Applying historic median activity to this year's freshet would have indicated a target crest of 4.09m (657.450m) on Aug 27th 2007.  But a more likely scenario, using the similar 1981 crest advance and according to the current trendline ... is a crest of 3.990m (657.347m) if the Crest Creep lasts the normal 35 day length.

The Chart above shows that the original 1981 baseline was breached about Aug 27th but the freshet still came back to successfully challenge its false crest.  In the end, the Phase2 baseline for 1981 was a horizontal baseline that is best represented by the 3.4m x-axis line.  Or ... was the freshet permanently receding in September ... until interference with Discharge Flows caused a re-advance of the Crest?

Web-based weather data for mid-Sept 1981  reveals no rain anomalies (7mm is max on Sept14) or extreme high temp (max 16C on Sept7) anomalies.  The 10" or 24cm surge in Sept would have required sustained watershed temps in the 30's or in excess of 200mm of rain.  No such record events are recorded.  Similarly, there is no forest fire related acitivity.  It is more plausible to speculate that normal Discharge rates were impeded at the Locks or Hydro Dam.

The 2007 freshet has breached three baselines and is now receding as shown in the first chart above.  This type of baseline analysis allows study and separation of  the underlying glacial meltwater from forcing by occasional showers or high temp episodes.  The gap area above the baselines represents rainfall (eg Aug7 & Aug19) and bonus glacier melt (eg Aug 18) on the hot days.  The full effect of rainshowers takes seven days to diminish.  Marsh Lake waters rose 60mm or 6cm/day during Phase 1.  Please Zoom in on the chart for higher resolution.


Wind Piling:  Altho locals deny it, my gauge observations confirm that Marsh Lake is susceptible to the phenom of "piling" whereby consistent strong winds can push waters higher at the leeward shore and temporarily reduce levels at the windward end.  Eventually, when the wind subsides, the water "sloshes" back from whence it came.

This was most evident in the course of events witnessed Aug 4/5.  Saturday's brisk NW winds pushed the waters eastward away from the measuring station at the Purple Caboose; and the level receded 1.5cm.  With light winds and in the absence of watershed rainfall on Sunday, the chart shows that the water all came right back.  And Sunday's showers will surely cause levels to surpass Friday's record high of 3.977m.  BTW, this process can pile water up several feet at the leeward end of the Great Lakes with the correct conditions, particularly Lake Erie with WNW winds.

 

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"Are we there yet?" - The dysfunctional YTG calls for the elusive Peak stem from their lack of comprehension of the post surge crest creep factor.  Historically it lasts "35 days" after the initial freshet's robust surge and adds 24cm to rising levels.  While this would normally reflect a Peak on Aug 23rd, this year's Crest Creep commenced four days later than usual and thus indicated a target Crest on Aug 27 of 4.09m (657.45m).

YTG Officials have had a litany of miscalls because they declared their first Peak on only the "9th day" after the initial freshet surge.  Their "umpteenth" others incl the Aug 15th Declaration were similarly misguided as the last one was made on only Day 23 of the 35-day Crest Creep period.

When YTG Officials declared that Marsh Lake was peaking at 3.9m on Aug 1st, they exposed themselves as not being students of history, geography, hydrology or meteorology!  The waters have since risen 8.3cm above the 3.9m level they committed to as seen in the chart above.

Seldom have their plethora of prediction efforts survived even 24 hours.  Sometimes their forecast peaks are breached before their comments reach the YTG website.  Now that's really embarrassing, eh!

The ramifications of faulty projections by YTG involve issues including premature winding down of sandbagging, dike water-saturation and likely breaches and overtopping with robust wave action September thru Thanksgiving.

A final concern is the misconception YTG is giving stakeholders of the extent of remedial work that can be undertaken before freeze-up.  Just as YTG Officials miscalculated the crest level & crest timing, they are presently overly optimistic with their forecasts of the rate whereby waters will recede.  There is reasonable potential for Autumn levels to be 16" higher than shown on the YTG graphs ... from Labour Day to Christmas.

This would indicate that today's levels will drop only 18" to 31" by freeze-up ... leaving slim hope for repairs to septic tanks, weeping beds, holding tanks, foundations and water systems. (rev 2007/9/6)

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Marsh Lake freshet range

Chart #2 ~ Marsh Lake freshets have a 13-foot range between record lows in May and the record late Summer highs!  This tracking chart illustrates the channel of record highs and lows thru which Marsh Lake water level travels.  There is a 4 metre (13') range from the Record Low Level in early May to the previous Record High of Sept 16th 1981.  The bold blue line is the 2007 freshet with its new Aug 14th Record High (3.988m).

1981 Profile with median

1981 Profile & Tracking of Historic Freshet Medians

Chart #3 ~ This is a profile of the previous 1981 Record Year (red) amid the channel of low/high Records.  Note that a false record crest of 3.514m occurs on Aug 15th;  the waters receded 12cm (5") over the next 3 weeks and advanced impressively 24cm (10") to set on Sept 16th what was to become the all time High Water Mark for 26 years (3.635m & 656.992 metres GSCD).

The gold line represents the median of all freshets.  It is clear that in a six decade perspective, crests occur after mid August.

Using the six-decade median (gold line), the Marsh Lake freshet robust surge starts May 10th followed by 35 days of Crest Creep from July 20 to a Cresting on Aug 23rd.  Prior to July 20, the surge advances at an avg rate of 3cm/day.  When accompanied by heavy snow packs and lotsa precipitation (as in 2007), the surge can generate 10cm/day bursts.  During the Crest Creep period, the crest advances at approx 7mm or 0.7cm/day.

After the crest peaks, waters recede an avg 4mm/day, 3cm/week, 12cm/month until year-end and a brisker 13mm/day, 9cm/wk, 40cm/month pace from January to May 9th.  But these rates reflect only the median 2.3 metre or 7 foot drop.  During record years, the waters decline almost 4 metres (13 feet).

2004 Profile

2004 Freshet Profile

Chart #4 ~ Similarly, the recent 2004 freshet (red line) did not see its near record crest until Aug 28th of that year (3.432m & 656.789 metres GSCD).

Highs & Lows since 1953

6 Decades of Record Freshet Max's/Min's

Chart #5 ~ This chart shows the annual Max & Min from 1953 to 2006.  Note the previous 1981 Record High and notables in 1971, 1992 & 2004.

At the other end of the record scale, Marsh Lake levels in the Spring of 1968 were approx 13 feet (4 metres) lower than the 2007 record high water mark!  Note that the Low Water Mark (blue trough) has been also rising ... since 1999.

Not shown are 2007 stats:  0.6m Min & 3.988 Max


contact Freddy Hutter at Judas Creek Marina:  (867) 660-5533 or graphs@trendlines.ca

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